Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Democrats at 85.5% to win House control in the 2026 midterms, reflecting persistent generic ballot leads of around D+5 in recent polls from Nate Silver, NYT, and Emerson College, projecting Democratic gains of 15-45 seats from the GOP's current narrow majority. Historical midterm patterns show the president's party—Republicans under Trump—typically losing 25-40 House seats, amplified by early redistricting battles in states like Texas and North Carolina, plus GOP internal struggles over affordability and reconciliation bills. Kickoff primaries in March and April special elections in Georgia, Wisconsin, New Jersey, and Virginia serve as key tests, with toss-up districts numbering 10 per Inside Elections ratings, though odds above 90% remain vulnerable to late scandals or economic shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$4,099,319 交易量
$4,099,319 交易量
2026-11-03
赚 4% 收益
民主党
86%
共和党
15%
$4,099,319 交易量
$4,099,319 交易量
2026-11-03
赚 4% 收益
民主党
$2,074,813 交易量
86%
共和党
$2,024,506 交易量
15%
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Democrats at 85.5% to win House control in the 2026 midterms, reflecting persistent generic ballot leads of around D+5 in recent polls from Nate Silver, NYT, and Emerson College, projecting Democratic gains of 15-45 seats from the GOP's current narrow majority. Historical midterm patterns show the president's party—Republicans under Trump—typically losing 25-40 House seats, amplified by early redistricting battles in states like Texas and North Carolina, plus GOP internal struggles over affordability and reconciliation bills. Kickoff primaries in March and April special elections in Georgia, Wisconsin, New Jersey, and Virginia serve as key tests, with toss-up districts numbering 10 per Inside Elections ratings, though odds above 90% remain vulnerable to late scandals or economic shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
市场开放时间： Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
交易量
$4,099,319结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Democrats at 85.5% to win House control in the 2026 midterms, reflecting persistent generic ballot leads of around D+5 in recent polls from Nate Silver, NYT, and Emerson College, projecting Democratic gains of 15-45 seats from the GOP's current narrow majority. Historical midterm patterns show the president's party—Republicans under Trump—typically losing 25-40 House seats, amplified by early redistricting battles in states like Texas and North Carolina, plus GOP internal struggles over affordability and reconciliation bills. Kickoff primaries in March and April special elections in Georgia, Wisconsin, New Jersey, and Virginia serve as key tests, with toss-up districts numbering 10 per Inside Elections ratings, though odds above 90% remain vulnerable to late scandals or economic shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
交易量
$4,099,319结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Democrats at 85.5% to win House control in the 2026 midterms, reflecting persistent generic ballot leads of around D+5 in recent polls from Nate Silver, NYT, and Emerson College, projecting Democratic gains of 15-45 seats from the GOP's current narrow majority. Historical midterm patterns show the president's party—Republicans under Trump—typically losing 25-40 House seats, amplified by early redistricting battles in states like Texas and North Carolina, plus GOP internal struggles over affordability and reconciliation bills. Kickoff primaries in March and April special elections in Georgia, Wisconsin, New Jersey, and Virginia serve as key tests, with toss-up districts numbering 10 per Inside Elections ratings, though odds above 90% remain vulnerable to late scandals or economic shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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