Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 21 Democratic House incumbents who have publicly announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, per trackers like Ballotpedia as of March 27, keeping the 24–27 range narrowly ahead at 25% implied probability amid expectations of 3–6 additional departures. This tight clustering among low- to mid-20s bins stems from a record pace of early retirement announcements—higher than comparable points in prior cycles like 2018—driven by members pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids, aging demographics, and mid-decade redistricting challenges in states like California and New York, yet no new Democratic announcements in the past 30 days has prevented separation. Primaries underway, such as Illinois on March 17, and filing deadlines could prompt vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts to exit, potentially boosting higher ranges like 28–31 or 32–35.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于24–27 25%
28–31 20%
32–35 15.2%
40人以上 11.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
少于20
2%
20–23
10%
24–27
29%
28–31
15%
32–35
15%
36–39
7%
40人以上
13%
24–27 25%
28–31 20%
32–35 15.2%
40人以上 11.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
少于20
$0 交易量
2%
20–23
$3,774 交易量
10%
24–27
$3,153 交易量
29%
28–31
$0 交易量
15%
32–35
$0 交易量
15%
36–39
$0 交易量
7%
40人以上
$0 交易量
13%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 21 Democratic House incumbents who have publicly announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, per trackers like Ballotpedia as of March 27, keeping the 24–27 range narrowly ahead at 25% implied probability amid expectations of 3–6 additional departures. This tight clustering among low- to mid-20s bins stems from a record pace of early retirement announcements—higher than comparable points in prior cycles like 2018—driven by members pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids, aging demographics, and mid-decade redistricting challenges in states like California and New York, yet no new Democratic announcements in the past 30 days has prevented separation. Primaries underway, such as Illinois on March 17, and filing deadlines could prompt vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts to exit, potentially boosting higher ranges like 28–31 or 32–35.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
交易量
$6,927结束日期
Aug 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 21 Democratic House incumbents who have publicly announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, per trackers like Ballotpedia as of March 27, keeping the 24–27 range narrowly ahead at 25% implied probability amid expectations of 3–6 additional departures. This tight clustering among low- to mid-20s bins stems from a record pace of early retirement announcements—higher than comparable points in prior cycles like 2018—driven by members pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids, aging demographics, and mid-decade redistricting challenges in states like California and New York, yet no new Democratic announcements in the past 30 days has prevented separation. Primaries underway, such as Illinois on March 17, and filing deadlines could prompt vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts to exit, potentially boosting higher ranges like 28–31 or 32–35.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$6,927结束日期
Aug 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 21 Democratic House incumbents who have publicly announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, per trackers like Ballotpedia as of March 27, keeping the 24–27 range narrowly ahead at 25% implied probability amid expectations of 3–6 additional departures. This tight clustering among low- to mid-20s bins stems from a record pace of early retirement announcements—higher than comparable points in prior cycles like 2018—driven by members pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids, aging demographics, and mid-decade redistricting challenges in states like California and New York, yet no new Democratic announcements in the past 30 days has prevented separation. Primaries underway, such as Illinois on March 17, and filing deadlines could prompt vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts to exit, potentially boosting higher ranges like 28–31 or 32–35.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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