Trader consensus assigns an 81% implied probability to a Republican winning Florida's open gubernatorial race on November 3, 2026, driven by the party's commanding voter registration edge, supermajorities in the state legislature, and no Democratic gubernatorial victory since 1994. Recent UNF polling from March 4 shows frontrunner Byron Donalds, backed by President Trump's endorsement and nine recent Florida Senate endorsements, leading the GOP primary and holding single-digit advantages over Democrats David Jolly and Jerry Demings in general matchups, hampered by low name recognition and undecided voters. A Democratic state House special election flip signals midterm competitiveness, but Republican structural advantages dominate ahead of the August 18 primaries.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
81%
民主党
17%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 交易量
81%
民主党
$0 交易量
17%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus assigns an 81% implied probability to a Republican winning Florida's open gubernatorial race on November 3, 2026, driven by the party's commanding voter registration edge, supermajorities in the state legislature, and no Democratic gubernatorial victory since 1994. Recent UNF polling from March 4 shows frontrunner Byron Donalds, backed by President Trump's endorsement and nine recent Florida Senate endorsements, leading the GOP primary and holding single-digit advantages over Democrats David Jolly and Jerry Demings in general matchups, hampered by low name recognition and undecided voters. A Democratic state House special election flip signals midterm competitiveness, but Republican structural advantages dominate ahead of the August 18 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus assigns an 81% implied probability to a Republican winning Florida's open gubernatorial race on November 3, 2026, driven by the party's commanding voter registration edge, supermajorities in the state legislature, and no Democratic gubernatorial victory since 1994. Recent UNF polling from March 4 shows frontrunner Byron Donalds, backed by President Trump's endorsement and nine recent Florida Senate endorsements, leading the GOP primary and holding single-digit advantages over Democrats David Jolly and Jerry Demings in general matchups, hampered by low name recognition and undecided voters. A Democratic state House special election flip signals midterm competitiveness, but Republican structural advantages dominate ahead of the August 18 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns an 81% implied probability to a Republican winning Florida's open gubernatorial race on November 3, 2026, driven by the party's commanding voter registration edge, supermajorities in the state legislature, and no Democratic gubernatorial victory since 1994. Recent UNF polling from March 4 shows frontrunner Byron Donalds, backed by President Trump's endorsement and nine recent Florida Senate endorsements, leading the GOP primary and holding single-digit advantages over Democrats David Jolly and Jerry Demings in general matchups, hampered by low name recognition and undecided voters. A Democratic state House special election flip signals midterm competitiveness, but Republican structural advantages dominate ahead of the August 18 primaries.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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