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到1月31日,美国/以色列将在伊朗瞄准什么?

Market icon

到1月31日,美国/以色列将在伊朗瞄准什么?

$236,867 交易量

Jan 16, 2026
Polymarket

$236,867 交易量

Polymarket

$77,014 交易量

石油/天然气

$42,600 交易量

德黑兰

$117,253 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil, between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by US or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market.

The resolution source for this market is official statements from the US, Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
交易量
$236,867
结束日期
Jan 16, 2026
市场开放时间
Jan 11, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil, between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by US or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the US, Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

已提议结果: 否

无争议

最终结果: 否

警惕外部链接哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"到1月31日,美国/以色列将在伊朗瞄准什么?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "核" at 0%, followed by "石油/天然气" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "到1月31日,美国/以色列将在伊朗瞄准什么?" has generated $236.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "到1月31日,美国/以色列将在伊朗瞄准什么?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "到1月31日,美国/以色列将在伊朗瞄准什么?" is "核" at just 0%, with "石油/天然气" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "到1月31日,美国/以色列将在伊朗瞄准什么?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.