President Trump's March 27 declaration that "Cuba is next" during a Miami investment forum—touting U.S. military successes in Venezuela and Iran—has spiked trader consensus to a 37% implied probability of a U.S. drone, missile, or airstrike on Cuban soil by December 31, per Polymarket's leading outcome, while the March 31 bucket sits at just 1%. This reflects escalating tensions from the January U.S. oil blockade disrupting Venezuelan fuel shipments, triggering Cuba's nationwide blackouts and unrest since mid-March, alongside Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío's March 22 warning of military preparations against potential aggression. Offsetting this, U.S. Southern Command's top general testified on March 19 that no invasion rehearsals or takeover plans are underway. Traders weigh regime change signals against diplomatic off-ramps, with $2.8 million in volume underscoring skin-in-the-game scrutiny of executive actions ahead.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$2,785,655 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
3月31日
1%
12月31日
38%
$2,785,655 交易量
3月31日
$1,480,576 交易量
1%
12月31日
$770,601 交易量
38%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.President Trump's March 27 declaration that "Cuba is next" during a Miami investment forum—touting U.S. military successes in Venezuela and Iran—has spiked trader consensus to a 37% implied probability of a U.S. drone, missile, or airstrike on Cuban soil by December 31, per Polymarket's leading outcome, while the March 31 bucket sits at just 1%. This reflects escalating tensions from the January U.S. oil blockade disrupting Venezuelan fuel shipments, triggering Cuba's nationwide blackouts and unrest since mid-March, alongside Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío's March 22 warning of military preparations against potential aggression. Offsetting this, U.S. Southern Command's top general testified on March 19 that no invasion rehearsals or takeover plans are underway. Traders weigh regime change signals against diplomatic off-ramps, with $2.8 million in volume underscoring skin-in-the-game scrutiny of executive actions ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市场开放时间： Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
交易量
$2,785,655结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.President Trump's March 27 declaration that "Cuba is next" during a Miami investment forum—touting U.S. military successes in Venezuela and Iran—has spiked trader consensus to a 37% implied probability of a U.S. drone, missile, or airstrike on Cuban soil by December 31, per Polymarket's leading outcome, while the March 31 bucket sits at just 1%. This reflects escalating tensions from the January U.S. oil blockade disrupting Venezuelan fuel shipments, triggering Cuba's nationwide blackouts and unrest since mid-March, alongside Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío's March 22 warning of military preparations against potential aggression. Offsetting this, U.S. Southern Command's top general testified on March 19 that no invasion rehearsals or takeover plans are underway. Traders weigh regime change signals against diplomatic off-ramps, with $2.8 million in volume underscoring skin-in-the-game scrutiny of executive actions ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$2,785,655结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's March 27 declaration that "Cuba is next" during a Miami investment forum—touting U.S. military successes in Venezuela and Iran—has spiked trader consensus to a 37% implied probability of a U.S. drone, missile, or airstrike on Cuban soil by December 31, per Polymarket's leading outcome, while the March 31 bucket sits at just 1%. This reflects escalating tensions from the January U.S. oil blockade disrupting Venezuelan fuel shipments, triggering Cuba's nationwide blackouts and unrest since mid-March, alongside Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío's March 22 warning of military preparations against potential aggression. Offsetting this, U.S. Southern Command's top general testified on March 19 that no invasion rehearsals or takeover plans are underway. Traders weigh regime change signals against diplomatic off-ramps, with $2.8 million in volume underscoring skin-in-the-game scrutiny of executive actions ahead.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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