Trader consensus heavily favors no US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any congressional bills, committee actions, or official proposals to amend the Military Selective Service Act and activate conscription, which requires explicit passage by both chambers and presidential approval. Recent March developments centered on the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act—signed December 2025—implementing automatic Selective Service registration for males aged 18-26 via federal databases effective December 18, 2026, but White House statements clarified this administrative update does not signal draft reinstatement amid ongoing recruiting challenges in the all-volunteer force. Geopolitical tensions, including US strikes on Iran, have not prompted legislative momentum for induction, with historical precedent favoring volunteers since 1973 absent extreme national emergency. No hearings or votes loom on the horizon.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$87,184 交易量
$87,184 交易量
2026-12-31
$87,184 交易量
$87,184 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any congressional bills, committee actions, or official proposals to amend the Military Selective Service Act and activate conscription, which requires explicit passage by both chambers and presidential approval. Recent March developments centered on the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act—signed December 2025—implementing automatic Selective Service registration for males aged 18-26 via federal databases effective December 18, 2026, but White House statements clarified this administrative update does not signal draft reinstatement amid ongoing recruiting challenges in the all-volunteer force. Geopolitical tensions, including US strikes on Iran, have not prompted legislative momentum for induction, with historical precedent favoring volunteers since 1973 absent extreme national emergency. No hearings or votes loom on the horizon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
交易量
$87,184结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any congressional bills, committee actions, or official proposals to amend the Military Selective Service Act and activate conscription, which requires explicit passage by both chambers and presidential approval. Recent March developments centered on the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act—signed December 2025—implementing automatic Selective Service registration for males aged 18-26 via federal databases effective December 18, 2026, but White House statements clarified this administrative update does not signal draft reinstatement amid ongoing recruiting challenges in the all-volunteer force. Geopolitical tensions, including US strikes on Iran, have not prompted legislative momentum for induction, with historical precedent favoring volunteers since 1973 absent extreme national emergency. No hearings or votes loom on the horizon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$87,184结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any congressional bills, committee actions, or official proposals to amend the Military Selective Service Act and activate conscription, which requires explicit passage by both chambers and presidential approval. Recent March developments centered on the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act—signed December 2025—implementing automatic Selective Service registration for males aged 18-26 via federal databases effective December 18, 2026, but White House statements clarified this administrative update does not signal draft reinstatement amid ongoing recruiting challenges in the all-volunteer force. Geopolitical tensions, including US strikes on Iran, have not prompted legislative momentum for induction, with historical precedent favoring volunteers since 1973 absent extreme national emergency. No hearings or votes loom on the horizon.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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