Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 92.5% implied probability to Trump remaining President past June 30, reflecting his decisive 2024 election win, certified Electoral College vote, and scheduled January 20 inauguration to begin a full term. Recent developments, including ongoing cabinet nominations like Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary amid Senate confirmation preparations and RFK Jr. for HHS Secretary, underscore a stable transition with no public signals of resignation, incapacity, or impeachment pursuit. Republican majorities in the House and Senate further diminish removal risks via impeachment or 25th Amendment invocation. Late-breaking scandals, health events, or legal rulings remain the primary uncertainties that could alter this positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$1,557,552 交易量
$1,557,552 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
是
$1,557,552 交易量
$1,557,552 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 92.5% implied probability to Trump remaining President past June 30, reflecting his decisive 2024 election win, certified Electoral College vote, and scheduled January 20 inauguration to begin a full term. Recent developments, including ongoing cabinet nominations like Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary amid Senate confirmation preparations and RFK Jr. for HHS Secretary, underscore a stable transition with no public signals of resignation, incapacity, or impeachment pursuit. Republican majorities in the House and Senate further diminish removal risks via impeachment or 25th Amendment invocation. Late-breaking scandals, health events, or legal rulings remain the primary uncertainties that could alter this positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ET
交易量
$1,557,552结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 92.5% implied probability to Trump remaining President past June 30, reflecting his decisive 2024 election win, certified Electoral College vote, and scheduled January 20 inauguration to begin a full term. Recent developments, including ongoing cabinet nominations like Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary amid Senate confirmation preparations and RFK Jr. for HHS Secretary, underscore a stable transition with no public signals of resignation, incapacity, or impeachment pursuit. Republican majorities in the House and Senate further diminish removal risks via impeachment or 25th Amendment invocation. Late-breaking scandals, health events, or legal rulings remain the primary uncertainties that could alter this positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,557,552结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 92.5% implied probability to Trump remaining President past June 30, reflecting his decisive 2024 election win, certified Electoral College vote, and scheduled January 20 inauguration to begin a full term. Recent developments, including ongoing cabinet nominations like Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary amid Senate confirmation preparations and RFK Jr. for HHS Secretary, underscore a stable transition with no public signals of resignation, incapacity, or impeachment pursuit. Republican majorities in the House and Senate further diminish removal risks via impeachment or 25th Amendment invocation. Late-breaking scandals, health events, or legal rulings remain the primary uncertainties that could alter this positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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