Traders' 82.5% implied probability on "No" reflects deep entrenchment in the Russia-Ukraine war, where Moscow demands territorial concessions and Kyiv insists on full withdrawal, stalling negotiations despite U.S. mediation efforts. Recent Russian advances in Donetsk and Ukraine's Kursk incursion have intensified fighting, with no breakthrough talks announced after Zelenskyy's rejection of partial ceasefires. In contrast, U.S.-Iran tensions, fueled by proxy conflicts and nuclear disputes, show diplomatic off-ramps via Oman channels, though no formal hostilities demand immediate ceasefire. Absent major catalysts like U.S. policy shifts post-election, the wisdom of crowds prices prolonged Ukraine stalemate over swift Iran de-escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$28,926 交易量
$28,926 交易量
$28,926 交易量
$28,926 交易量
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.
This market will resolve to "No" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine.
If neither ceasefire agreement is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
If both ceasefire agreements are announced on the same calendar date, the market will resolve based on which announcement occurred earlier in ET time.
1. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
2. US x Iran ceasefire
A qualifying ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.
This market will resolve to "No" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine.
If neither ceasefire agreement is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
If both ceasefire agreements are announced on the same calendar date, the market will resolve based on which announcement occurred earlier in ET time.
1. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
2. US x Iran ceasefire
A qualifying ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.
This market will resolve to "No" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine.
If neither ceasefire agreement is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
If both ceasefire agreements are announced on the same calendar date, the market will resolve based on which announcement occurred earlier in ET time.
1. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
2. US x Iran ceasefire
A qualifying ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
This market will resolve to "No" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine.
If neither ceasefire agreement is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
If both ceasefire agreements are announced on the same calendar date, the market will resolve based on which announcement occurred earlier in ET time.
1. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
2. US x Iran ceasefire
A qualifying ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
市场开放时间： Mar 13, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
交易量
$28,926市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.
This market will resolve to "No" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine.
If neither ceasefire agreement is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
If both ceasefire agreements are announced on the same calendar date, the market will resolve based on which announcement occurred earlier in ET time.
1. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
2. US x Iran ceasefire
A qualifying ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.
This market will resolve to "No" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine.
If neither ceasefire agreement is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
If both ceasefire agreements are announced on the same calendar date, the market will resolve based on which announcement occurred earlier in ET time.
1. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
2. US x Iran ceasefire
A qualifying ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.
This market will resolve to "No" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine.
If neither ceasefire agreement is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
If both ceasefire agreements are announced on the same calendar date, the market will resolve based on which announcement occurred earlier in ET time.
1. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
2. US x Iran ceasefire
A qualifying ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
This market will resolve to "No" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine.
If neither ceasefire agreement is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
If both ceasefire agreements are announced on the same calendar date, the market will resolve based on which announcement occurred earlier in ET time.
1. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
2. US x Iran ceasefire
A qualifying ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$28,926市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' 82.5% implied probability on "No" reflects deep entrenchment in the Russia-Ukraine war, where Moscow demands territorial concessions and Kyiv insists on full withdrawal, stalling negotiations despite U.S. mediation efforts. Recent Russian advances in Donetsk and Ukraine's Kursk incursion have intensified fighting, with no breakthrough talks announced after Zelenskyy's rejection of partial ceasefires. In contrast, U.S.-Iran tensions, fueled by proxy conflicts and nuclear disputes, show diplomatic off-ramps via Oman channels, though no formal hostilities demand immediate ceasefire. Absent major catalysts like U.S. policy shifts post-election, the wisdom of crowds prices prolonged Ukraine stalemate over swift Iran de-escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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