Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.6%, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 16.7%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.7%, reflecting high uncertainty in early positioning amid the post-Trump GOP succession and an open Democratic field. Vance's lead stems from his recent CPAC straw poll win for the Republican nomination and a donor summit appearance, but odds have softened over the past week due to President Trump's Iran negotiations and erratic statements raising GOP risks ahead of 2026 midterms. Newsom gains as the Democratic frontrunner on Polymarket's nominee market, while Rubio surges on diplomatic visibility in Iran talks. Midterm outcomes, Trump endorsements, or candidacy announcements could widen gaps in this fluid race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于JD Vance 17.6%
加文·纽瑟姆 16.7%
马尔科·鲁比奥 10.7%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 5.9%
$479,912,025 交易量
$479,912,025 交易量
JD Vance
18%
加文·纽瑟姆
17%
马尔科·鲁比奥
11%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
6%
乔恩·奥索夫
3%
分组项标题：塔克·卡尔森
3%
卡马拉·哈里斯
3%
乔什·沙皮罗
2%
唐纳德·特朗普
2%
安迪·贝塞尔
2%
彼得·布蒂吉格
2%
罗恩·德桑蒂斯
2%
分组项标题：JB Pritzker
2%
道恩·“巨石”强森
1%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科
1%
分组项目标题：伊万卡·特朗普
1%
米歇尔·奥巴马
1%
埃隆·马斯克
1%
分组项标题：格雷琴·惠特默
1%
分组项标题：杰米·戴蒙
1%
格雷格·阿博特
1%
分组项标题：韦斯·摩尔
1%
唐纳德·特朗普二世
1%
尼基·黑利
1%
罗·卡纳
1%
托马斯·马西
1%
分组条目标题：蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%
格伦·杨金
1%
斯蒂芬·史密斯
1%
图尔西·加巴德
1%
分组项标题：Zohran Mamdani
1%
埃里克·特朗普
1%
勒布朗·詹姆斯
1%
皮特·海格塞斯
1%
维克·拉马斯瓦米
1%
金·卡戴珊
1%
JD Vance 17.6%
加文·纽瑟姆 16.7%
马尔科·鲁比奥 10.7%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 5.9%
$479,912,025 交易量
$479,912,025 交易量
JD Vance
18%
加文·纽瑟姆
17%
马尔科·鲁比奥
11%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
6%
乔恩·奥索夫
3%
分组项标题：塔克·卡尔森
3%
卡马拉·哈里斯
3%
乔什·沙皮罗
2%
唐纳德·特朗普
2%
安迪·贝塞尔
2%
彼得·布蒂吉格
2%
罗恩·德桑蒂斯
2%
分组项标题：JB Pritzker
2%
道恩·“巨石”强森
1%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科
1%
分组项目标题：伊万卡·特朗普
1%
米歇尔·奥巴马
1%
埃隆·马斯克
1%
分组项标题：格雷琴·惠特默
1%
分组项标题：杰米·戴蒙
1%
格雷格·阿博特
1%
分组项标题：韦斯·摩尔
1%
唐纳德·特朗普二世
1%
尼基·黑利
1%
罗·卡纳
1%
托马斯·马西
1%
分组条目标题：蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%
格伦·杨金
1%
斯蒂芬·史密斯
1%
图尔西·加巴德
1%
分组项标题：Zohran Mamdani
1%
埃里克·特朗普
1%
勒布朗·詹姆斯
1%
皮特·海格塞斯
1%
维克·拉马斯瓦米
1%
金·卡戴珊
1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
市场开放时间： Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.6%, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 16.7%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.7%, reflecting high uncertainty in early positioning amid the post-Trump GOP succession and an open Democratic field. Vance's lead stems from his recent CPAC straw poll win for the Republican nomination and a donor summit appearance, but odds have softened over the past week due to President Trump's Iran negotiations and erratic statements raising GOP risks ahead of 2026 midterms. Newsom gains as the Democratic frontrunner on Polymarket's nominee market, while Rubio surges on diplomatic visibility in Iran talks. Midterm outcomes, Trump endorsements, or candidacy announcements could widen gaps in this fluid race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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