Vice President JD Vance's lead in trader consensus at 17.6% stems from his dominant 53% win in the latest CPAC straw poll, reinforcing his frontrunner status among conservatives as the sitting vice president with incumbency advantages, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio's recent surge to second place at 10.7% reflects GOP donor backing and his elevated profile amid the Iran conflict. California Governor Gavin Newsom holds close at 16.6% as the leading Democratic contender, bolstered by his national anti-Trump advocacy and post-2026 midterm positioning plans. This tight race persists due to the early stage—over 2.5 years from primaries—with odds vulnerable to 2026 midterm outcomes, Trump administration performance on economy and foreign policy, and potential scandals or endorsements that could widen leads.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于JD Vance 17.6%
加文·纽瑟姆 16.6%
马尔科·鲁比奥 10.7%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 6.0%
$480,028,516 交易量
$480,028,516 交易量
JD Vance
18%
加文·纽瑟姆
17%
马尔科·鲁比奥
11%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
6%
乔恩·奥索夫
3%
分组项标题：塔克·卡尔森
3%
卡马拉·哈里斯
3%
乔什·沙皮罗
2%
唐纳德·特朗普
2%
安迪·贝塞尔
2%
彼得·布蒂吉格
2%
分组项标题：JB Pritzker
2%
罗恩·德桑蒂斯
2%
道恩·“巨石”强森
1%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科
1%
分组项目标题：伊万卡·特朗普
1%
米歇尔·奥巴马
1%
埃隆·马斯克
1%
分组项标题：格雷琴·惠特默
1%
分组项标题：杰米·戴蒙
1%
格雷格·阿博特
1%
分组项标题：韦斯·摩尔
1%
唐纳德·特朗普二世
1%
尼基·黑利
1%
罗·卡纳
1%
托马斯·马西
1%
分组条目标题：蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%
格伦·杨金
1%
斯蒂芬·史密斯
1%
图尔西·加巴德
1%
分组项标题：Zohran Mamdani
1%
埃里克·特朗普
1%
勒布朗·詹姆斯
1%
皮特·海格塞斯
1%
维克·拉马斯瓦米
1%
金·卡戴珊
1%
JD Vance 17.6%
加文·纽瑟姆 16.6%
马尔科·鲁比奥 10.7%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 6.0%
$480,028,516 交易量
$480,028,516 交易量
JD Vance
18%
加文·纽瑟姆
17%
马尔科·鲁比奥
11%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
6%
乔恩·奥索夫
3%
分组项标题：塔克·卡尔森
3%
卡马拉·哈里斯
3%
乔什·沙皮罗
2%
唐纳德·特朗普
2%
安迪·贝塞尔
2%
彼得·布蒂吉格
2%
分组项标题：JB Pritzker
2%
罗恩·德桑蒂斯
2%
道恩·“巨石”强森
1%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科
1%
分组项目标题：伊万卡·特朗普
1%
米歇尔·奥巴马
1%
埃隆·马斯克
1%
分组项标题：格雷琴·惠特默
1%
分组项标题：杰米·戴蒙
1%
格雷格·阿博特
1%
分组项标题：韦斯·摩尔
1%
唐纳德·特朗普二世
1%
尼基·黑利
1%
罗·卡纳
1%
托马斯·马西
1%
分组条目标题：蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%
格伦·杨金
1%
斯蒂芬·史密斯
1%
图尔西·加巴德
1%
分组项标题：Zohran Mamdani
1%
埃里克·特朗普
1%
勒布朗·詹姆斯
1%
皮特·海格塞斯
1%
维克·拉马斯瓦米
1%
金·卡戴珊
1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
市场开放时间： Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Vice President JD Vance's lead in trader consensus at 17.6% stems from his dominant 53% win in the latest CPAC straw poll, reinforcing his frontrunner status among conservatives as the sitting vice president with incumbency advantages, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio's recent surge to second place at 10.7% reflects GOP donor backing and his elevated profile amid the Iran conflict. California Governor Gavin Newsom holds close at 16.6% as the leading Democratic contender, bolstered by his national anti-Trump advocacy and post-2026 midterm positioning plans. This tight race persists due to the early stage—over 2.5 years from primaries—with odds vulnerable to 2026 midterm outcomes, Trump administration performance on economy and foreign policy, and potential scandals or endorsements that could widen leads.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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