Incumbent Rep. Melanie Stansbury's reelection bid in solidly Democratic New Mexico's 1st Congressional District (D+7 partisan voter index) anchors trader consensus at high Democratic odds, reflecting her unopposed June 2 primary path and dominant 56% victory in 2024. Stansbury maintains a vast fundraising lead, with $354,000 cash on hand versus Republican nominee Didi Okpareke's $4,000 as of late 2025, per FEC data. The GOP pre-primary convention in March secured Okpareke's nod after rivals withdrew, but ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball remain Solid/Safe Democratic amid no recent polling or shifts. Realistic challenges include a national Republican midterm wave, Stansbury scandal, or Okpareke fundraising surge before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$18,940 交易量
$18,940 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
91%
共和党
7%
$18,940 交易量
$18,940 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$9,441 交易量
91%
共和党
$9,499 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Melanie Stansbury's reelection bid in solidly Democratic New Mexico's 1st Congressional District (D+7 partisan voter index) anchors trader consensus at high Democratic odds, reflecting her unopposed June 2 primary path and dominant 56% victory in 2024. Stansbury maintains a vast fundraising lead, with $354,000 cash on hand versus Republican nominee Didi Okpareke's $4,000 as of late 2025, per FEC data. The GOP pre-primary convention in March secured Okpareke's nod after rivals withdrew, but ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball remain Solid/Safe Democratic amid no recent polling or shifts. Realistic challenges include a national Republican midterm wave, Stansbury scandal, or Okpareke fundraising surge before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$18,940结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Melanie Stansbury's reelection bid in solidly Democratic New Mexico's 1st Congressional District (D+7 partisan voter index) anchors trader consensus at high Democratic odds, reflecting her unopposed June 2 primary path and dominant 56% victory in 2024. Stansbury maintains a vast fundraising lead, with $354,000 cash on hand versus Republican nominee Didi Okpareke's $4,000 as of late 2025, per FEC data. The GOP pre-primary convention in March secured Okpareke's nod after rivals withdrew, but ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball remain Solid/Safe Democratic amid no recent polling or shifts. Realistic challenges include a national Republican midterm wave, Stansbury scandal, or Okpareke fundraising surge before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$18,940结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Melanie Stansbury's reelection bid in solidly Democratic New Mexico's 1st Congressional District (D+7 partisan voter index) anchors trader consensus at high Democratic odds, reflecting her unopposed June 2 primary path and dominant 56% victory in 2024. Stansbury maintains a vast fundraising lead, with $354,000 cash on hand versus Republican nominee Didi Okpareke's $4,000 as of late 2025, per FEC data. The GOP pre-primary convention in March secured Okpareke's nod after rivals withdrew, but ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball remain Solid/Safe Democratic amid no recent polling or shifts. Realistic challenges include a national Republican midterm wave, Stansbury scandal, or Okpareke fundraising surge before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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