Incumbent Rep. Melanie Stansbury runs unopposed in the June 2 Democratic primary for New Mexico's 1st Congressional District, a safe Democratic seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+7, where she won 56% in 2024 against Republican Steve Jones. Trader consensus at 90.5% for Democrats stems from the district's consistent double-digit Democratic margins since 2020, Stansbury's incumbency advantage, and fundraising edge—$356,000 cash on hand versus GOP nominee Ndidiamaka Okpareke's $30,000 as of late March—following withdrawals by other Republicans. A Republican upset would require a national midterm wave, Stansbury scandal, or depressed Democratic turnout, though historical base rates favor incumbents in such strongholds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$20,110 交易量
$20,110 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
91%
共和党
7%
$20,110 交易量
$20,110 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$9,731 交易量
91%
共和党
$10,379 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Melanie Stansbury runs unopposed in the June 2 Democratic primary for New Mexico's 1st Congressional District, a safe Democratic seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+7, where she won 56% in 2024 against Republican Steve Jones. Trader consensus at 90.5% for Democrats stems from the district's consistent double-digit Democratic margins since 2020, Stansbury's incumbency advantage, and fundraising edge—$356,000 cash on hand versus GOP nominee Ndidiamaka Okpareke's $30,000 as of late March—following withdrawals by other Republicans. A Republican upset would require a national midterm wave, Stansbury scandal, or depressed Democratic turnout, though historical base rates favor incumbents in such strongholds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$20,110结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Melanie Stansbury runs unopposed in the June 2 Democratic primary for New Mexico's 1st Congressional District, a safe Democratic seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+7, where she won 56% in 2024 against Republican Steve Jones. Trader consensus at 90.5% for Democrats stems from the district's consistent double-digit Democratic margins since 2020, Stansbury's incumbency advantage, and fundraising edge—$356,000 cash on hand versus GOP nominee Ndidiamaka Okpareke's $30,000 as of late March—following withdrawals by other Republicans. A Republican upset would require a national midterm wave, Stansbury scandal, or depressed Democratic turnout, though historical base rates favor incumbents in such strongholds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$20,110结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Melanie Stansbury runs unopposed in the June 2 Democratic primary for New Mexico's 1st Congressional District, a safe Democratic seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+7, where she won 56% in 2024 against Republican Steve Jones. Trader consensus at 90.5% for Democrats stems from the district's consistent double-digit Democratic margins since 2020, Stansbury's incumbency advantage, and fundraising edge—$356,000 cash on hand versus GOP nominee Ndidiamaka Okpareke's $30,000 as of late March—following withdrawals by other Republicans. A Republican upset would require a national midterm wave, Stansbury scandal, or depressed Democratic turnout, though historical base rates favor incumbents in such strongholds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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