Incumbent Democrat Teresa Leger Fernández holds a commanding lead in New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District House race, reflected in trader consensus pricing Democratic victory at 89.5% implied probability amid strong polling averages showing her ahead by double digits. Recent internal and public polls, including a late October survey with her at 54% to Republican Michael Hafen's 38%, reinforce this positioning, driven by her 2022 reelection margin of 10 points in a district with a Democratic-leaning Hispanic voter base. Hafen's campaign lags in fundraising and visibility, with no major momentum shifts from early voting data or the recent candidate debate. While late surprises like scandals or turnout swings remain possible, historical incumbent reelection rates above 90% in similar seats underpin the market's tilt.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
90%
共和党
11%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
90%
共和党
$0 交易量
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Teresa Leger Fernández holds a commanding lead in New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District House race, reflected in trader consensus pricing Democratic victory at 89.5% implied probability amid strong polling averages showing her ahead by double digits. Recent internal and public polls, including a late October survey with her at 54% to Republican Michael Hafen's 38%, reinforce this positioning, driven by her 2022 reelection margin of 10 points in a district with a Democratic-leaning Hispanic voter base. Hafen's campaign lags in fundraising and visibility, with no major momentum shifts from early voting data or the recent candidate debate. While late surprises like scandals or turnout swings remain possible, historical incumbent reelection rates above 90% in similar seats underpin the market's tilt.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Teresa Leger Fernández holds a commanding lead in New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District House race, reflected in trader consensus pricing Democratic victory at 89.5% implied probability amid strong polling averages showing her ahead by double digits. Recent internal and public polls, including a late October survey with her at 54% to Republican Michael Hafen's 38%, reinforce this positioning, driven by her 2022 reelection margin of 10 points in a district with a Democratic-leaning Hispanic voter base. Hafen's campaign lags in fundraising and visibility, with no major momentum shifts from early voting data or the recent candidate debate. While late surprises like scandals or turnout swings remain possible, historical incumbent reelection rates above 90% in similar seats underpin the market's tilt.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Teresa Leger Fernández holds a commanding lead in New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District House race, reflected in trader consensus pricing Democratic victory at 89.5% implied probability amid strong polling averages showing her ahead by double digits. Recent internal and public polls, including a late October survey with her at 54% to Republican Michael Hafen's 38%, reinforce this positioning, driven by her 2022 reelection margin of 10 points in a district with a Democratic-leaning Hispanic voter base. Hafen's campaign lags in fundraising and visibility, with no major momentum shifts from early voting data or the recent candidate debate. While late surprises like scandals or turnout swings remain possible, historical incumbent reelection rates above 90% in similar seats underpin the market's tilt.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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