Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez maintains a strong lead in NM-02 polling averages, with recent surveys like the October Emerson poll showing him ahead 52%-38% over Republican Louie Sanchez, anchoring trader consensus at 82.5% for the Democratic Party. Vasquez's advantages include superior fundraising—$2.1 million cash on hand versus Sanchez's $240,000—incumbency in a district Biden won by 6 points in 2020, and endorsements from unions and local Hispanic leaders amid higher Democratic early voting turnout since October 19. Sanchez's primary win faced internal GOP divisions, limiting momentum. While base mobilization could narrow the gap before November 5, historical House race polling accuracy at this stage supports the frontrunner's edge.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
83%
共和党
11%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
83%
共和党
$0 交易量
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez maintains a strong lead in NM-02 polling averages, with recent surveys like the October Emerson poll showing him ahead 52%-38% over Republican Louie Sanchez, anchoring trader consensus at 82.5% for the Democratic Party. Vasquez's advantages include superior fundraising—$2.1 million cash on hand versus Sanchez's $240,000—incumbency in a district Biden won by 6 points in 2020, and endorsements from unions and local Hispanic leaders amid higher Democratic early voting turnout since October 19. Sanchez's primary win faced internal GOP divisions, limiting momentum. While base mobilization could narrow the gap before November 5, historical House race polling accuracy at this stage supports the frontrunner's edge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 4, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez maintains a strong lead in NM-02 polling averages, with recent surveys like the October Emerson poll showing him ahead 52%-38% over Republican Louie Sanchez, anchoring trader consensus at 82.5% for the Democratic Party. Vasquez's advantages include superior fundraising—$2.1 million cash on hand versus Sanchez's $240,000—incumbency in a district Biden won by 6 points in 2020, and endorsements from unions and local Hispanic leaders amid higher Democratic early voting turnout since October 19. Sanchez's primary win faced internal GOP divisions, limiting momentum. While base mobilization could narrow the gap before November 5, historical House race polling accuracy at this stage supports the frontrunner's edge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 4, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez maintains a strong lead in NM-02 polling averages, with recent surveys like the October Emerson poll showing him ahead 52%-38% over Republican Louie Sanchez, anchoring trader consensus at 82.5% for the Democratic Party. Vasquez's advantages include superior fundraising—$2.1 million cash on hand versus Sanchez's $240,000—incumbency in a district Biden won by 6 points in 2020, and endorsements from unions and local Hispanic leaders amid higher Democratic early voting turnout since October 19. Sanchez's primary win faced internal GOP divisions, limiting momentum. While base mobilization could narrow the gap before November 5, historical House race polling accuracy at this stage supports the frontrunner's edge.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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