Democratic incumbent Gabriel Vasquez holds a 64.5% implied probability in the NM-02 House race, ahead of Republican challenger Greg Cunningham at 22%, reflecting the seat's Lean Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball alongside Vasquez's 2024 reelection margin. The district's even partisan voting index and narrow 2024 presidential results keep the contest competitive, with a recent April poll showing Vasquez leading Cunningham by just two points. Cunningham consolidated the Republican primary after Jose Orozco withdrew in April, enabling unified GOP efforts including a super PAC ad buy and reported endorsements, though the June 2 primary and November 3 general remain several months away. Trader consensus incorporates these structural and campaign dynamics while noting potential shifts from turnout among independents and Hispanic voters or national conditions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$17,522 交易量
$17,522 交易量
2026-11-04
民主党
68%
共和党
22%
$17,522 交易量
$17,522 交易量
2026-11-04
民主党
$1,496 交易量
68%
共和党
$16,027 交易量
22%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Gabriel Vasquez holds a 64.5% implied probability in the NM-02 House race, ahead of Republican challenger Greg Cunningham at 22%, reflecting the seat's Lean Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball alongside Vasquez's 2024 reelection margin. The district's even partisan voting index and narrow 2024 presidential results keep the contest competitive, with a recent April poll showing Vasquez leading Cunningham by just two points. Cunningham consolidated the Republican primary after Jose Orozco withdrew in April, enabling unified GOP efforts including a super PAC ad buy and reported endorsements, though the June 2 primary and November 3 general remain several months away. Trader consensus incorporates these structural and campaign dynamics while noting potential shifts from turnout among independents and Hispanic voters or national conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
交易量
$17,522结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Gabriel Vasquez holds a 64.5% implied probability in the NM-02 House race, ahead of Republican challenger Greg Cunningham at 22%, reflecting the seat's Lean Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball alongside Vasquez's 2024 reelection margin. The district's even partisan voting index and narrow 2024 presidential results keep the contest competitive, with a recent April poll showing Vasquez leading Cunningham by just two points. Cunningham consolidated the Republican primary after Jose Orozco withdrew in April, enabling unified GOP efforts including a super PAC ad buy and reported endorsements, though the June 2 primary and November 3 general remain several months away. Trader consensus incorporates these structural and campaign dynamics while noting potential shifts from turnout among independents and Hispanic voters or national conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$17,522结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Gabriel Vasquez holds a 64.5% implied probability in the NM-02 House race, ahead of Republican challenger Greg Cunningham at 22%, reflecting the seat's Lean Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball alongside Vasquez's 2024 reelection margin. The district's even partisan voting index and narrow 2024 presidential results keep the contest competitive, with a recent April poll showing Vasquez leading Cunningham by just two points. Cunningham consolidated the Republican primary after Jose Orozco withdrew in April, enabling unified GOP efforts including a super PAC ad buy and reported endorsements, though the June 2 primary and November 3 general remain several months away. Trader consensus incorporates these structural and campaign dynamics while noting potential shifts from turnout among independents and Hispanic voters or national conditions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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