Incumbent Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D) commands trader consensus at 77.5% implied probability to retain New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District, buoyed by his narrow 2024 victory in this battleground—despite Trump carrying it narrowly—and a fundraising edge estimated at $3.5 million. Recent GOP primary consolidation, with challenger Jose Orozco dropping out on April 8 to endorse Greg Cunningham and Trump backing Cunningham on April 15, has cleared the Republican path ahead of the June 2 primaries, yet odds reflect skepticism on Cunningham's viability amid voter registration favoring Democrats by over 30,000 and reports of New Mexico Republican infighting. No public head-to-head polling exists, underscoring Vasquez's incumbency advantage in this Hispanic-heavy swing district through November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$17,364 交易量
$17,364 交易量
2026-11-04
民主党
72%
共和党
16%
$17,364 交易量
$17,364 交易量
2026-11-04
民主党
$1,424 交易量
72%
共和党
$15,940 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D) commands trader consensus at 77.5% implied probability to retain New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District, buoyed by his narrow 2024 victory in this battleground—despite Trump carrying it narrowly—and a fundraising edge estimated at $3.5 million. Recent GOP primary consolidation, with challenger Jose Orozco dropping out on April 8 to endorse Greg Cunningham and Trump backing Cunningham on April 15, has cleared the Republican path ahead of the June 2 primaries, yet odds reflect skepticism on Cunningham's viability amid voter registration favoring Democrats by over 30,000 and reports of New Mexico Republican infighting. No public head-to-head polling exists, underscoring Vasquez's incumbency advantage in this Hispanic-heavy swing district through November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
交易量
$17,364结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D) commands trader consensus at 77.5% implied probability to retain New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District, buoyed by his narrow 2024 victory in this battleground—despite Trump carrying it narrowly—and a fundraising edge estimated at $3.5 million. Recent GOP primary consolidation, with challenger Jose Orozco dropping out on April 8 to endorse Greg Cunningham and Trump backing Cunningham on April 15, has cleared the Republican path ahead of the June 2 primaries, yet odds reflect skepticism on Cunningham's viability amid voter registration favoring Democrats by over 30,000 and reports of New Mexico Republican infighting. No public head-to-head polling exists, underscoring Vasquez's incumbency advantage in this Hispanic-heavy swing district through November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$17,364结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D) commands trader consensus at 77.5% implied probability to retain New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District, buoyed by his narrow 2024 victory in this battleground—despite Trump carrying it narrowly—and a fundraising edge estimated at $3.5 million. Recent GOP primary consolidation, with challenger Jose Orozco dropping out on April 8 to endorse Greg Cunningham and Trump backing Cunningham on April 15, has cleared the Republican path ahead of the June 2 primaries, yet odds reflect skepticism on Cunningham's viability amid voter registration favoring Democrats by over 30,000 and reports of New Mexico Republican infighting. No public head-to-head polling exists, underscoring Vasquez's incumbency advantage in this Hispanic-heavy swing district through November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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