Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith's retirement has opened Minnesota's Senate seat, yet early polls show Democrats maintaining an edge, with Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leading broadcaster Michele Tafoya 47%-41% and Rep. Angie Craig ahead 47%-40% in a February Emerson survey of likely voters. This trader consensus at 88.5% for Democrats reflects the state's partisan lean—no Republican Senate win since 2002, Trump's 4-point 2024 loss—and fragmented GOP primary featuring Royce White, David Hann, and Adam Schwarze's recent straw poll strength. No major developments in the past 30 days, but August 11 primaries and GOP endorsement convention loom as potential catalysts for shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$15,255 交易量
$15,255 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
89%
共和党
12%
$15,255 交易量
$15,255 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$11,272 交易量
89%
共和党
$3,983 交易量
12%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith's retirement has opened Minnesota's Senate seat, yet early polls show Democrats maintaining an edge, with Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leading broadcaster Michele Tafoya 47%-41% and Rep. Angie Craig ahead 47%-40% in a February Emerson survey of likely voters. This trader consensus at 88.5% for Democrats reflects the state's partisan lean—no Republican Senate win since 2002, Trump's 4-point 2024 loss—and fragmented GOP primary featuring Royce White, David Hann, and Adam Schwarze's recent straw poll strength. No major developments in the past 30 days, but August 11 primaries and GOP endorsement convention loom as potential catalysts for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
交易量
$15,255结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith's retirement has opened Minnesota's Senate seat, yet early polls show Democrats maintaining an edge, with Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leading broadcaster Michele Tafoya 47%-41% and Rep. Angie Craig ahead 47%-40% in a February Emerson survey of likely voters. This trader consensus at 88.5% for Democrats reflects the state's partisan lean—no Republican Senate win since 2002, Trump's 4-point 2024 loss—and fragmented GOP primary featuring Royce White, David Hann, and Adam Schwarze's recent straw poll strength. No major developments in the past 30 days, but August 11 primaries and GOP endorsement convention loom as potential catalysts for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$15,255结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith's retirement has opened Minnesota's Senate seat, yet early polls show Democrats maintaining an edge, with Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leading broadcaster Michele Tafoya 47%-41% and Rep. Angie Craig ahead 47%-40% in a February Emerson survey of likely voters. This trader consensus at 88.5% for Democrats reflects the state's partisan lean—no Republican Senate win since 2002, Trump's 4-point 2024 loss—and fragmented GOP primary featuring Royce White, David Hann, and Adam Schwarze's recent straw poll strength. No major developments in the past 30 days, but August 11 primaries and GOP endorsement convention loom as potential catalysts for shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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