Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's unyielding control over the military and security forces underpins the 99.7% implied probability on "No" for his exile to Russia by March 31, reflecting trader consensus on regime stability amid international isolation. Recent developments, including Maduro's unchallenged January inauguration despite disputed July election results and opposition suppression, show no defections or pressure forcing flight—Russia provides diplomatic backing but no relocation signals. High confidence stems from absent catalysts like coups or mass protests toppling him, with historical precedent of Maduro weathering sanctions and challenges. Realistic shifts could involve unexpected military revolt or U.S.-led intervention, though evidence remains scant.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$148,040 交易量
$148,040 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$148,040 交易量
$148,040 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Dec 11, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
交易量
$148,040结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 11, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$148,040结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 11, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's unyielding control over the military and security forces underpins the 99.7% implied probability on "No" for his exile to Russia by March 31, reflecting trader consensus on regime stability amid international isolation. Recent developments, including Maduro's unchallenged January inauguration despite disputed July election results and opposition suppression, show no defections or pressure forcing flight—Russia provides diplomatic backing but no relocation signals. High confidence stems from absent catalysts like coups or mass protests toppling him, with historical precedent of Maduro weathering sanctions and challenges. Realistic shifts could involve unexpected military revolt or U.S.-led intervention, though evidence remains scant.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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