Incumbent Rep. James Comer's dominant fundraising—over $3.3 million cash on hand—and the district's strong Republican lean (R+23 Cook PVI) underpin trader consensus pricing the Republican Party above 90% to retain KY-01 in the November general election. Comer faces a contested GOP primary on May 19 against low-funded challengers Penny Arcos, David Sims, and Robert James Sutherby, but historical 74%+ general election margins against weak Democratic opponents signal a safe hold. Democrat Drew Williams advanced unopposed after his primary cancellation, with minimal resources ($8,700 cash). Upsets could stem from a scandal hitting Comer or his primary victor, health issues, or an extreme national Democratic wave, though structural barriers remain high.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$12,352 交易量
$12,352 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
92%
民主党
7%
$12,352 交易量
$12,352 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$5,742 交易量
92%
民主党
$6,609 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. James Comer's dominant fundraising—over $3.3 million cash on hand—and the district's strong Republican lean (R+23 Cook PVI) underpin trader consensus pricing the Republican Party above 90% to retain KY-01 in the November general election. Comer faces a contested GOP primary on May 19 against low-funded challengers Penny Arcos, David Sims, and Robert James Sutherby, but historical 74%+ general election margins against weak Democratic opponents signal a safe hold. Democrat Drew Williams advanced unopposed after his primary cancellation, with minimal resources ($8,700 cash). Upsets could stem from a scandal hitting Comer or his primary victor, health issues, or an extreme national Democratic wave, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$12,352结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. James Comer's dominant fundraising—over $3.3 million cash on hand—and the district's strong Republican lean (R+23 Cook PVI) underpin trader consensus pricing the Republican Party above 90% to retain KY-01 in the November general election. Comer faces a contested GOP primary on May 19 against low-funded challengers Penny Arcos, David Sims, and Robert James Sutherby, but historical 74%+ general election margins against weak Democratic opponents signal a safe hold. Democrat Drew Williams advanced unopposed after his primary cancellation, with minimal resources ($8,700 cash). Upsets could stem from a scandal hitting Comer or his primary victor, health issues, or an extreme national Democratic wave, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$12,352结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. James Comer's dominant fundraising—over $3.3 million cash on hand—and the district's strong Republican lean (R+23 Cook PVI) underpin trader consensus pricing the Republican Party above 90% to retain KY-01 in the November general election. Comer faces a contested GOP primary on May 19 against low-funded challengers Penny Arcos, David Sims, and Robert James Sutherby, but historical 74%+ general election margins against weak Democratic opponents signal a safe hold. Democrat Drew Williams advanced unopposed after his primary cancellation, with minimal resources ($8,700 cash). Upsets could stem from a scandal hitting Comer or his primary victor, health issues, or an extreme national Democratic wave, though structural barriers remain high.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题