Ongoing Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and expanded ground operations in southern Lebanon, as reported in late March 2026, anchor trader consensus toward three countries—primarily Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria (Iranian proxies), and Yemen (Houthis)—with 46.5% implied probability, reflecting sustained multi-front engagements since the 2025 escalations. The close race with ≥4 countries at 39.5% stems from uncertainty over direct Iran strikes recurring, potential Iraq militia targets, or diplomatic breakthroughs like rejected ceasefire proposals and a looming UN Security Council meeting. Minimal odds on fewer strikes underscore entrenched conflict dynamics, though de-escalation signals or major Iranian retaliation could widen the gap before April ends.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于3 47%
≥4 40%
2 11%
≤1 3.9%
$19,680 交易量
$19,680 交易量
2026-04-30
≤1
4%
2
11%
3
47%
≥4
40%
3 47%
≥4 40%
2 11%
≤1 3.9%
$19,680 交易量
$19,680 交易量
2026-04-30
≤1
$4,873 交易量
4%
2
$1,847 交易量
11%
3
$6,237 交易量
47%
≥4
$6,723 交易量
40%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and expanded ground operations in southern Lebanon, as reported in late March 2026, anchor trader consensus toward three countries—primarily Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria (Iranian proxies), and Yemen (Houthis)—with 46.5% implied probability, reflecting sustained multi-front engagements since the 2025 escalations. The close race with ≥4 countries at 39.5% stems from uncertainty over direct Iran strikes recurring, potential Iraq militia targets, or diplomatic breakthroughs like rejected ceasefire proposals and a looming UN Security Council meeting. Minimal odds on fewer strikes underscore entrenched conflict dynamics, though de-escalation signals or major Iranian retaliation could widen the gap before April ends.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
交易量
$19,680结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and expanded ground operations in southern Lebanon, as reported in late March 2026, anchor trader consensus toward three countries—primarily Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria (Iranian proxies), and Yemen (Houthis)—with 46.5% implied probability, reflecting sustained multi-front engagements since the 2025 escalations. The close race with ≥4 countries at 39.5% stems from uncertainty over direct Iran strikes recurring, potential Iraq militia targets, or diplomatic breakthroughs like rejected ceasefire proposals and a looming UN Security Council meeting. Minimal odds on fewer strikes underscore entrenched conflict dynamics, though de-escalation signals or major Iranian retaliation could widen the gap before April ends.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$19,680结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and expanded ground operations in southern Lebanon, as reported in late March 2026, anchor trader consensus toward three countries—primarily Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria (Iranian proxies), and Yemen (Houthis)—with 46.5% implied probability, reflecting sustained multi-front engagements since the 2025 escalations. The close race with ≥4 countries at 39.5% stems from uncertainty over direct Iran strikes recurring, potential Iraq militia targets, or diplomatic breakthroughs like rejected ceasefire proposals and a looming UN Security Council meeting. Minimal odds on fewer strikes underscore entrenched conflict dynamics, though de-escalation signals or major Iranian retaliation could widen the gap before April ends.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题