Intensified Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure since late February, coupled with ongoing operations against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon—including recent strikes in Beirut and southern areas—have anchored trader consensus around 4-5 countries for the year, building on earlier 2026 actions in Yemen against Houthis and presumed continuations in Syria. The close contest between 4 (37%) and 5 (30%) reflects uncertainty over whether strikes in Iraq or additional proxies will materialize amid US-backed escalations, balanced against fragile ceasefire talks and Iranian retaliation threats. Separation could arise from verified hits in a new country like Iraq or de-escalation via multilateral diplomacy, with the remaining nine months pivotal for shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于4 36.8%
5 30.0%
6 12.6%
3 12.0%
$6,265,440 交易量
$6,265,440 交易量
2026-12-31
3
12%
4
37%
5
30%
6
13%
7
3%
8
2%
9
2%
10
1%
11
1%
12
<1%
13
<1%
14
<1%
15+
<1%
4 36.8%
5 30.0%
6 12.6%
3 12.0%
$6,265,440 交易量
$6,265,440 交易量
2026-12-31
3
$1,863,192 交易量
12%
4
$1,139,939 交易量
37%
5
$452,323 交易量
30%
6
$625,862 交易量
13%
7
$584,452 交易量
3%
8
$498,818 交易量
2%
9
$198,529 交易量
2%
10
$370,740 交易量
1%
11
$89,483 交易量
1%
12
$59,336 交易量
<1%
13
$129,252 交易量
<1%
14
$94,414 交易量
<1%
15+
$33,610 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Intensified Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure since late February, coupled with ongoing operations against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon—including recent strikes in Beirut and southern areas—have anchored trader consensus around 4-5 countries for the year, building on earlier 2026 actions in Yemen against Houthis and presumed continuations in Syria. The close contest between 4 (37%) and 5 (30%) reflects uncertainty over whether strikes in Iraq or additional proxies will materialize amid US-backed escalations, balanced against fragile ceasefire talks and Iranian retaliation threats. Separation could arise from verified hits in a new country like Iraq or de-escalation via multilateral diplomacy, with the remaining nine months pivotal for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
交易量
$6,265,440结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Intensified Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure since late February, coupled with ongoing operations against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon—including recent strikes in Beirut and southern areas—have anchored trader consensus around 4-5 countries for the year, building on earlier 2026 actions in Yemen against Houthis and presumed continuations in Syria. The close contest between 4 (37%) and 5 (30%) reflects uncertainty over whether strikes in Iraq or additional proxies will materialize amid US-backed escalations, balanced against fragile ceasefire talks and Iranian retaliation threats. Separation could arise from verified hits in a new country like Iraq or de-escalation via multilateral diplomacy, with the remaining nine months pivotal for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$6,265,440结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Intensified Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure since late February, coupled with ongoing operations against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon—including recent strikes in Beirut and southern areas—have anchored trader consensus around 4-5 countries for the year, building on earlier 2026 actions in Yemen against Houthis and presumed continuations in Syria. The close contest between 4 (37%) and 5 (30%) reflects uncertainty over whether strikes in Iraq or additional proxies will materialize amid US-backed escalations, balanced against fragile ceasefire talks and Iranian retaliation threats. Separation could arise from verified hits in a new country like Iraq or de-escalation via multilateral diplomacy, with the remaining nine months pivotal for shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题