Incumbent Ed Case's commanding position in Hawaii's 1st congressional district, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+13 partisan voter index, drives the 94% trader consensus for a Democratic hold in the November 2026 general election. Case, who has won general elections with 70%+ margins since 2018, leads Democratic primary challengers—including state Rep. Della Au Belatti and Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole—in fundraising with over $740,000 cash on hand as of late 2025. No major developments in the past 30 days have altered this dynamic, with ratings unchanged and the Republican primary featuring only Maxwell Frazier amid minimal GOP activity. Realistic challenges include a Case primary upset, a high-profile Republican recruit, or a national Republican midterm wave, though historical precedents favor the incumbent in this reliably blue urban Honolulu seat.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
94%
共和党
$0 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Ed Case's commanding position in Hawaii's 1st congressional district, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+13 partisan voter index, drives the 94% trader consensus for a Democratic hold in the November 2026 general election. Case, who has won general elections with 70%+ margins since 2018, leads Democratic primary challengers—including state Rep. Della Au Belatti and Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole—in fundraising with over $740,000 cash on hand as of late 2025. No major developments in the past 30 days have altered this dynamic, with ratings unchanged and the Republican primary featuring only Maxwell Frazier amid minimal GOP activity. Realistic challenges include a Case primary upset, a high-profile Republican recruit, or a national Republican midterm wave, though historical precedents favor the incumbent in this reliably blue urban Honolulu seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Ed Case's commanding position in Hawaii's 1st congressional district, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+13 partisan voter index, drives the 94% trader consensus for a Democratic hold in the November 2026 general election. Case, who has won general elections with 70%+ margins since 2018, leads Democratic primary challengers—including state Rep. Della Au Belatti and Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole—in fundraising with over $740,000 cash on hand as of late 2025. No major developments in the past 30 days have altered this dynamic, with ratings unchanged and the Republican primary featuring only Maxwell Frazier amid minimal GOP activity. Realistic challenges include a Case primary upset, a high-profile Republican recruit, or a national Republican midterm wave, though historical precedents favor the incumbent in this reliably blue urban Honolulu seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Ed Case's commanding position in Hawaii's 1st congressional district, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+13 partisan voter index, drives the 94% trader consensus for a Democratic hold in the November 2026 general election. Case, who has won general elections with 70%+ margins since 2018, leads Democratic primary challengers—including state Rep. Della Au Belatti and Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole—in fundraising with over $740,000 cash on hand as of late 2025. No major developments in the past 30 days have altered this dynamic, with ratings unchanged and the Republican primary featuring only Maxwell Frazier amid minimal GOP activity. Realistic challenges include a Case primary upset, a high-profile Republican recruit, or a national Republican midterm wave, though historical precedents favor the incumbent in this reliably blue urban Honolulu seat.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题