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选举·世界选举

都柏林市中心补选获胜者

Market icon
选举·世界选举

都柏林市中心补选获胜者

丹尼尔·恩尼斯 76%

贾尼斯·博伊兰 15.0%

杰里·哈奇 4.3%

吉莉安·谢拉特 1.5%

Polymarket

$688,209 交易量

丹尼尔·恩尼斯 76%

贾尼斯·博伊兰 15.0%

杰里·哈奇 4.3%

吉莉安·谢拉特 1.5%

Polymarket

$688,209 交易量

丹尼尔·恩尼斯

$8,606 交易量

76%

贾尼斯·博伊兰

$3,883 交易量

15%

杰里·哈奇

$492,387 交易量

4%

吉莉安·谢拉特

$115,930 交易量

1%

约翰·斯蒂芬斯

$41,048 交易量

1%

珍妮特·霍纳

$2,047 交易量

1%

Ray McAdam

$2,023 交易量

1%

玛丽·菲茨帕特里克

$2,460 交易量

<1%

马拉基·斯廷森

$11,067 交易量

<1%

伊恩·诺埃尔·史密斯

$4,892 交易量

<1%

Séamas McGrattan

$1,956 交易量

<1%

Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin

$1,909 交易量

<1%

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 76% implied probability to win the Dublin Central Dáil by-election in May 2026, driven by his party's incumbency advantage—fellow Social Democrat Gary Gannon holds one of the four seats—and his strong local profile advocating housing reform, youth diversion programs, and community spaces in working-class areas like North Strand and Cabra. Sinn Féin councillor Janice Boylan, selected in late February, trails at 15% with recent canvassing in Drumcondra highlighting safer communities and anti-Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael messaging, though familial ties to organized crime figures may cap support. Independent Gerry Hutch lingers at 4.3% on name recognition despite controversy, while Fine Gael's March 23 selection of Lord Mayor Ray McAdam has failed to lift his 0.6% odds amid government fatigue. No opinion polls exist; high trading volume reflects skin-in-the-game confidence in Ennis absent major shifts.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 76% implied probability to win the Dublin Central Dáil by-election in May 2026, driven by his party's incumbency advantage—fellow Social Democrat Gary Gannon holds one of the four seats—and his strong local profile advocating housing reform, youth diversion programs, and community spaces in working-class areas like North Strand and Cabra. Sinn Féin councillor Janice Boylan, selected in late February, trails at 15% with recent canvassing in Drumcondra highlighting safer communities and anti-Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael messaging, though familial ties to organized crime figures may cap support. Independent Gerry Hutch lingers at 4.3% on name recognition despite controversy, while Fine Gael's March 23 selection of Lord Mayor Ray McAdam has failed to lift his 0.6% odds amid government fatigue. No opinion polls exist; high trading volume reflects skin-in-the-game confidence in Ennis absent major shifts.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 76% implied probability to win the Dublin Central Dáil by-election in May 2026, driven by his party's incumbency advantage—fellow Social Democrat Gary Gannon holds one of the four seats—and his strong local profile advocating housing reform, youth diversion programs, and community spaces in working-class areas like North Strand and Cabra. Sinn Féin councillor Janice Boylan, selected in late February, trails at 15% with recent canvassing in Drumcondra highlighting safer communities and anti-Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael messaging, though familial ties to organized crime figures may cap support. Independent Gerry Hutch lingers at 4.3% on name recognition despite controversy, while Fine Gael's March 23 selection of Lord Mayor Ray McAdam has failed to lift his 0.6% odds amid government fatigue. No opinion polls exist; high trading volume reflects skin-in-the-game confidence in Ennis absent major shifts.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 76% implied probability to win the Dublin Central Dáil by-election in May 2026, driven by his party's incumbency advantage—fellow Social Democrat Gary Gannon holds one of the four seats—and his strong local profile advocating housing reform, youth diversion programs, and community spaces in working-class areas like North Strand and Cabra. Sinn Féin councillor Janice Boylan, selected in late February, trails at 15% with recent canvassing in Drumcondra highlighting safer communities and anti-Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael messaging, though familial ties to organized crime figures may cap support. Independent Gerry Hutch lingers at 4.3% on name recognition despite controversy, while Fine Gael's March 23 selection of Lord Mayor Ray McAdam has failed to lift his 0.6% odds amid government fatigue. No opinion polls exist; high trading volume reflects skin-in-the-game confidence in Ennis absent major shifts.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"都柏林市中心补选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 12 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"丹尼尔·恩尼斯"，概率为 76%，其次是"贾尼斯·博伊兰"，概率为 15%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 76¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 76%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"都柏林市中心补选获胜者"已产生 $688.2K 的总交易量（自Feb 20, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"都柏林市中心补选获胜者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 12 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"都柏林市中心补选获胜者"的当前领先者是"丹尼尔·恩尼斯"，概率为 76%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 76%。紧随其后的结果是"贾尼斯·博伊兰"，概率为 15%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"都柏林市中心补选获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。