California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, propelled by a March 12 Politico poll showing him trouncing Kamala Harris in their home-state primary and his high-profile book tour in New Hampshire that amplified national visibility as a sharp Trump critic. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% amid progressive enthusiasm but faces pushback from Democratic moderates, including South Carolina pragmatists mobilizing against left-wing firebrands to prioritize electability. Jon Ossoff's 6% reflects Georgia incumbency advantages, while Harris's drop to 4% stems from her 2024 loss and uneven national polls. In this fragmented field, consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results elevating successful governors like Newsom or Josh Shapiro, major endorsements, fundraising dominance, or scandals eroding frontrunners before primaries begin in 2028.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于加文·纽瑟姆 24.3%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 8.3%
乔恩·奥索夫 5.7%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯 4.4%
$930,752,531 交易量
$930,752,531 交易量
加文·纽瑟姆
24%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
8%
乔恩·奥索夫
6%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯
4%
乔什·沙皮罗
4%
皮特·布蒂吉格
4%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科
2%
J.B. Pritzker
2%
乔恩·斯图尔特
2%
安迪·贝希尔
2%
马克·凯利
2%
鲁本·加列戈
2%
Ro Khanna
2%
分组条目标题：Wes Moore
2%
格雷琴·惠特默
1%
奥普拉·温弗瑞
1%
米歇尔·奥巴马
1%
拉姆·伊曼纽尔
1%
科里·布克
1%
马克·库班
1%
道恩·“巨石强森”·约翰逊
1%
斯蒂芬·A·史密斯
1%
克里斯·墨菲
1%
约翰·费特曼
1%
勒布朗·詹姆斯
1%
吉娜·雷蒙多
1%
分组项标题：Liz Cheney
1%
Zohran Mamdani
1%
罗伊·库珀
1%
乔治·克洛尼
1%
分组项标题：贾里德·波利斯
1%
切尔西·克林顿
1%
分组项标题：MrBeast
1%
希拉里·克林顿
1%
巴拉克·奥巴马
1%
蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%
杨安德鲁
1%
分组条目标题：金·卡戴珊
1%
菲尔·墨菲
1%
亨特·拜登
1%
Jasmine Crockett
1%
Raphael Warnock
1%
伯尼·桑德斯
1%
贝托·奥罗克
1%
加文·纽瑟姆 24.3%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 8.3%
乔恩·奥索夫 5.7%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯 4.4%
$930,752,531 交易量
$930,752,531 交易量
加文·纽瑟姆
24%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
8%
乔恩·奥索夫
6%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯
4%
乔什·沙皮罗
4%
皮特·布蒂吉格
4%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科
2%
J.B. Pritzker
2%
乔恩·斯图尔特
2%
安迪·贝希尔
2%
马克·凯利
2%
鲁本·加列戈
2%
Ro Khanna
2%
分组条目标题：Wes Moore
2%
格雷琴·惠特默
1%
奥普拉·温弗瑞
1%
米歇尔·奥巴马
1%
拉姆·伊曼纽尔
1%
科里·布克
1%
马克·库班
1%
道恩·“巨石强森”·约翰逊
1%
斯蒂芬·A·史密斯
1%
克里斯·墨菲
1%
约翰·费特曼
1%
勒布朗·詹姆斯
1%
吉娜·雷蒙多
1%
分组项标题：Liz Cheney
1%
Zohran Mamdani
1%
罗伊·库珀
1%
乔治·克洛尼
1%
分组项标题：贾里德·波利斯
1%
切尔西·克林顿
1%
分组项标题：MrBeast
1%
希拉里·克林顿
1%
巴拉克·奥巴马
1%
蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%
杨安德鲁
1%
分组条目标题：金·卡戴珊
1%
菲尔·墨菲
1%
亨特·拜登
1%
Jasmine Crockett
1%
Raphael Warnock
1%
伯尼·桑德斯
1%
贝托·奥罗克
1%
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, propelled by a March 12 Politico poll showing him trouncing Kamala Harris in their home-state primary and his high-profile book tour in New Hampshire that amplified national visibility as a sharp Trump critic. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% amid progressive enthusiasm but faces pushback from Democratic moderates, including South Carolina pragmatists mobilizing against left-wing firebrands to prioritize electability. Jon Ossoff's 6% reflects Georgia incumbency advantages, while Harris's drop to 4% stems from her 2024 loss and uneven national polls. In this fragmented field, consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results elevating successful governors like Newsom or Josh Shapiro, major endorsements, fundraising dominance, or scandals eroding frontrunners before primaries begin in 2028.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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