Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa holds a commanding position in California's 46th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic partisan advantage, reflected in nonpartisan ratings of solid or safe from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball following recent redistricting. Correa's substantial fundraising edge, with more than $2.4 million cash on hand, positions him strongly for the June 2 top-two primary against Democratic challengers Francisco Bahena, Christian Mendez, and Armando Perez-Serrato, as well as Republican David Pan. This setup underpins traders' 92.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election victory on November 3. A primary upset advancing an untested Republican or an unforeseen late development affecting Democratic turnout represent the main scenarios that could narrow the gap.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$11,084 交易量
$11,084 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
6%
$11,084 交易量
$11,084 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$2,449 交易量
93%
共和党
$8,635 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa holds a commanding position in California's 46th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic partisan advantage, reflected in nonpartisan ratings of solid or safe from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball following recent redistricting. Correa's substantial fundraising edge, with more than $2.4 million cash on hand, positions him strongly for the June 2 top-two primary against Democratic challengers Francisco Bahena, Christian Mendez, and Armando Perez-Serrato, as well as Republican David Pan. This setup underpins traders' 92.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election victory on November 3. A primary upset advancing an untested Republican or an unforeseen late development affecting Democratic turnout represent the main scenarios that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$11,084结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa holds a commanding position in California's 46th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic partisan advantage, reflected in nonpartisan ratings of solid or safe from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball following recent redistricting. Correa's substantial fundraising edge, with more than $2.4 million cash on hand, positions him strongly for the June 2 top-two primary against Democratic challengers Francisco Bahena, Christian Mendez, and Armando Perez-Serrato, as well as Republican David Pan. This setup underpins traders' 92.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election victory on November 3. A primary upset advancing an untested Republican or an unforeseen late development affecting Democratic turnout represent the main scenarios that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,084结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa holds a commanding position in California's 46th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic partisan advantage, reflected in nonpartisan ratings of solid or safe from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball following recent redistricting. Correa's substantial fundraising edge, with more than $2.4 million cash on hand, positions him strongly for the June 2 top-two primary against Democratic challengers Francisco Bahena, Christian Mendez, and Armando Perez-Serrato, as well as Republican David Pan. This setup underpins traders' 92.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election victory on November 3. A primary upset advancing an untested Republican or an unforeseen late development affecting Democratic turnout represent the main scenarios that could narrow the gap.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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