Alabama's entrenched Republican dominance in statewide elections, where the GOP has held the governorship since 1995, every other statewide office, and supermajorities in the legislature, drives trader consensus to a commanding 93.8% implied probability for a Republican winner in the 2026 open-seat gubernatorial race following term limits for incumbent Kay Ivey. With primaries not until March 2026, recent announcements of potential GOP contenders like Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth and interest from Sen. Tommy Tuberville highlight a robust Republican bench against a thin Democratic field lacking competitive statewide infrastructure. Scenarios that could challenge this include a major scandal engulfing the GOP nominee, an unprecedented national Democratic wave, or extraordinarily high minority turnout in urban areas like Birmingham, though historical base rates in deep-red Alabama make such shifts unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$828 交易量
94%
民主党
$1,524 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
交易量
$2,352结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$2,352结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Alabama's entrenched Republican dominance in statewide elections, where the GOP has held the governorship since 1995, every other statewide office, and supermajorities in the legislature, drives trader consensus to a commanding 93.8% implied probability for a Republican winner in the 2026 open-seat gubernatorial race following term limits for incumbent Kay Ivey. With primaries not until March 2026, recent announcements of potential GOP contenders like Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth and interest from Sen. Tommy Tuberville highlight a robust Republican bench against a thin Democratic field lacking competitive statewide infrastructure. Scenarios that could challenge this include a major scandal engulfing the GOP nominee, an unprecedented national Democratic wave, or extraordinarily high minority turnout in urban areas like Birmingham, though historical base rates in deep-red Alabama make such shifts unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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