Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 74.5% implied probability on OpenAI releasing GPT-5.5—codenamed "Spud"—on April 23, driven by escalating leaks over the past week indicating pretraining completed in late March, post-training and red-teaming finalized, and internal readiness for a natively multimodal large language model surpassing GPT-5.4 benchmarks in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks. Recent OpenAI updates, including Codex's macOS computer-use features and gpt-image-1.5 integration on April 16, signal testing of new capabilities, amid "model wars" pressure from Anthropic's Opus 4.7 launch. No official announcement yet, but leadership hints and competitive dynamics have shifted odds sharply from broader April windows; watch for blog posts or X updates this week, as safety evaluations or delays could push to April 24 (6.2%) or beyond.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4月23日 75%
4月24日 11.7%
不會在 4 月 30 日前發佈 5.5%
4 月 22 日 4.0%
$140,411 交易量
$140,411 交易量
2026-04-30
4 月 18 日
<1%
4月19日
<1%
4 月 20 日
1%
4 月 21 日
1%
4 月 22 日
4%
4月23日
75%
4月24日
6%
4 月 25 日
<1%
4月26日
1%
4 月 27 日
1%
4 月 28 日
2%
4 月 29 日
2%
4 月 30 日
4%
不會在 4 月 30 日前發佈
6%
4月23日 75%
4月24日 11.7%
不會在 4 月 30 日前發佈 5.5%
4 月 22 日 4.0%
$140,411 交易量
$140,411 交易量
2026-04-30
4 月 18 日
$2,130 交易量
<1%
4月19日
$2,892 交易量
<1%
4 月 20 日
$2,481 交易量
1%
4 月 21 日
$4,562 交易量
1%
4 月 22 日
$6,263 交易量
4%
4月23日
$30,030 交易量
75%
4月24日
$3,177 交易量
6%
4 月 25 日
$1,743 交易量
<1%
4月26日
$2,060 交易量
1%
4 月 27 日
$2,524 交易量
1%
4 月 28 日
$2,923 交易量
2%
4 月 29 日
$2,763 交易量
2%
4 月 30 日
$4,514 交易量
4%
不會在 4 月 30 日前發佈
$9,080 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 74.5% implied probability on OpenAI releasing GPT-5.5—codenamed "Spud"—on April 23, driven by escalating leaks over the past week indicating pretraining completed in late March, post-training and red-teaming finalized, and internal readiness for a natively multimodal large language model surpassing GPT-5.4 benchmarks in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks. Recent OpenAI updates, including Codex's macOS computer-use features and gpt-image-1.5 integration on April 16, signal testing of new capabilities, amid "model wars" pressure from Anthropic's Opus 4.7 launch. No official announcement yet, but leadership hints and competitive dynamics have shifted odds sharply from broader April windows; watch for blog posts or X updates this week, as safety evaluations or delays could push to April 24 (6.2%) or beyond.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
交易量
$140,411結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: 否
爭議期
最終
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 74.5% implied probability on OpenAI releasing GPT-5.5—codenamed "Spud"—on April 23, driven by escalating leaks over the past week indicating pretraining completed in late March, post-training and red-teaming finalized, and internal readiness for a natively multimodal large language model surpassing GPT-5.4 benchmarks in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks. Recent OpenAI updates, including Codex's macOS computer-use features and gpt-image-1.5 integration on April 16, signal testing of new capabilities, amid "model wars" pressure from Anthropic's Opus 4.7 launch. No official announcement yet, but leadership hints and competitive dynamics have shifted odds sharply from broader April windows; watch for blog posts or X updates this week, as safety evaluations or delays could push to April 24 (6.2%) or beyond.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$140,411結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: 否
爭議期
最終
Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 74.5% implied probability on OpenAI releasing GPT-5.5—codenamed "Spud"—on April 23, driven by escalating leaks over the past week indicating pretraining completed in late March, post-training and red-teaming finalized, and internal readiness for a natively multimodal large language model surpassing GPT-5.4 benchmarks in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks. Recent OpenAI updates, including Codex's macOS computer-use features and gpt-image-1.5 integration on April 16, signal testing of new capabilities, amid "model wars" pressure from Anthropic's Opus 4.7 launch. No official announcement yet, but leadership hints and competitive dynamics have shifted odds sharply from broader April windows; watch for blog posts or X updates this week, as safety evaluations or delays could push to April 24 (6.2%) or beyond.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions