Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a slim 51% implied probability over Google's 44.5% for possessing the third-best AI model by May 31, reflecting razor-thin margins on leaderboards like LMSYS Chatbot Arena and Artificial Analysis, where OpenAI's GPT-5.5 variants dominate #1 and #2. Anthropic's April 16 release of Claude Opus 4.7 propelled it ahead in coding benchmarks—claiming #1 on Code Arena with a 37-point jump over prior versions—while Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview holds edges in reasoning tasks like GPQA (94.3%). Competitive dynamics hinge on agentic capabilities and real-world evals, with no confirmed end-May releases but potential previews at Google I/O or Anthropic updates shifting the balance amid scaling via new Amazon and Google compute deals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 51%
Google 45%
xAI 1.9%
OpenAI 1.8%
$81,739 交易量
$81,739 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
51%
45%
xAI
2%
OpenAI
2%
Alibaba
1%
Baidu
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meta
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meituan
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 51%
Google 45%
xAI 1.9%
OpenAI 1.8%
$81,739 交易量
$81,739 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
$13,719 交易量
51%
$8,068 交易量
45%
xAI
$6,636 交易量
2%
OpenAI
$6,903 交易量
2%
Alibaba
$5,035 交易量
1%
Baidu
$4,572 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$3,739 交易量
<1%
Meta
$4,507 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$4,189 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$2,930 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$2,474 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$5,350 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$6,694 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$2,361 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$4,562 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a slim 51% implied probability over Google's 44.5% for possessing the third-best AI model by May 31, reflecting razor-thin margins on leaderboards like LMSYS Chatbot Arena and Artificial Analysis, where OpenAI's GPT-5.5 variants dominate #1 and #2. Anthropic's April 16 release of Claude Opus 4.7 propelled it ahead in coding benchmarks—claiming #1 on Code Arena with a 37-point jump over prior versions—while Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview holds edges in reasoning tasks like GPQA (94.3%). Competitive dynamics hinge on agentic capabilities and real-world evals, with no confirmed end-May releases but potential previews at Google I/O or Anthropic updates shifting the balance amid scaling via new Amazon and Google compute deals.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$81,739結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a slim 51% implied probability over Google's 44.5% for possessing the third-best AI model by May 31, reflecting razor-thin margins on leaderboards like LMSYS Chatbot Arena and Artificial Analysis, where OpenAI's GPT-5.5 variants dominate #1 and #2. Anthropic's April 16 release of Claude Opus 4.7 propelled it ahead in coding benchmarks—claiming #1 on Code Arena with a 37-point jump over prior versions—while Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview holds edges in reasoning tasks like GPQA (94.3%). Competitive dynamics hinge on agentic capabilities and real-world evals, with no confirmed end-May releases but potential previews at Google I/O or Anthropic updates shifting the balance amid scaling via new Amazon and Google compute deals.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$81,739結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a slim 51% implied probability over Google's 44.5% for possessing the third-best AI model by May 31, reflecting razor-thin margins on leaderboards like LMSYS Chatbot Arena and Artificial Analysis, where OpenAI's GPT-5.5 variants dominate #1 and #2. Anthropic's April 16 release of Claude Opus 4.7 propelled it ahead in coding benchmarks—claiming #1 on Code Arena with a 37-point jump over prior versions—while Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview holds edges in reasoning tasks like GPQA (94.3%). Competitive dynamics hinge on agentic capabilities and real-world evals, with no confirmed end-May releases but potential previews at Google I/O or Anthropic updates shifting the balance amid scaling via new Amazon and Google compute deals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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