Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward xAI (39.5% implied probability) for the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard by April's end, driven by Grok-1.5's recent gains in stylistic mimicry and creative formatting tasks from its April vision update. Google (35%) and Anthropic (35%) trail closely, bolstered by Gemini 1.5 Pro's context-handling prowess and Claude 3 Sonnet's precise instruction adherence, respectively, amid frequent leaderboard volatility from user votes. Differentiators include xAI's real-time X data edge for dynamic styles, versus Big Tech's superior scaling; lower odds for Moonshot, DeepSeek, and others reflect weaker Elo scores in style benchmarks despite cost efficiencies. Watch final April snapshot for resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於xAI 40%
Google 35%
Anthropic 35%
Moonshot 21%

xAI
40%

35%

Anthropic
35%

Moonshot
21%

Z.ai
21%

DeepSeek
21%

OpenAI
21%

Amazon
21%

Mistral
21%

Meituan
21%

Alibaba
11%

ByteDance
11%

Baidu
11%
xAI 40%
Google 35%
Anthropic 35%
Moonshot 21%

xAI
40%

35%

Anthropic
35%

Moonshot
21%

Z.ai
21%

DeepSeek
21%

OpenAI
21%

Amazon
21%

Mistral
21%

Meituan
21%

Alibaba
11%

ByteDance
11%

Baidu
11%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間: Mar 20, 2026, 4:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward xAI (39.5% implied probability) for the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard by April's end, driven by Grok-1.5's recent gains in stylistic mimicry and creative formatting tasks from its April vision update. Google (35%) and Anthropic (35%) trail closely, bolstered by Gemini 1.5 Pro's context-handling prowess and Claude 3 Sonnet's precise instruction adherence, respectively, amid frequent leaderboard volatility from user votes. Differentiators include xAI's real-time X data edge for dynamic styles, versus Big Tech's superior scaling; lower odds for Moonshot, DeepSeek, and others reflect weaker Elo scores in style benchmarks despite cost efficiencies. Watch final April snapshot for resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions