OpenAI's blockbuster $122 billion funding round, closed March 31 at an $852 billion post-money valuation, anchors trader consensus around the 750B–1T IPO market cap outcome at 37.5% implied probability, reflecting robust enterprise revenue growth to $13 billion in 2025 amid surging AI demand. Yet "No IPO by December 31, 2027" trades near-parity at 31%, driven by persistent $14 billion projected 2026 losses, $600 billion compute spend through 2030, and unproven profitability path versus rivals like Anthropic and Google. Recent hires like ex-DocuSign CFO Sarah Friar signal Q4 2026 IPO preparations, but absent S-1 filing and regulatory hurdles sustain uncertainty in this closely contested market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於2027年12月31日前不進行首次公開募股 22%
1 兆–1.25 兆 17%
1.5兆以上 14%
低於5000億 7%
$13,692 交易量
$13,692 交易量
低於5000億
15%
5,000–7,500 億
27%
7,500億–1兆
39%
1 兆–1.25 兆
17%
1.25兆–1.5兆
16%
1.5兆以上
14%
2027年12月31日前不進行首次公開募股
31%
2027年12月31日前不進行首次公開募股 22%
1 兆–1.25 兆 17%
1.5兆以上 14%
低於5000億 7%
$13,692 交易量
$13,692 交易量
低於5000億
15%
5,000–7,500 億
27%
7,500億–1兆
39%
1 兆–1.25 兆
17%
1.25兆–1.5兆
16%
1.5兆以上
14%
2027年12月31日前不進行首次公開募股
31%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市場開放時間: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI's blockbuster $122 billion funding round, closed March 31 at an $852 billion post-money valuation, anchors trader consensus around the 750B–1T IPO market cap outcome at 37.5% implied probability, reflecting robust enterprise revenue growth to $13 billion in 2025 amid surging AI demand. Yet "No IPO by December 31, 2027" trades near-parity at 31%, driven by persistent $14 billion projected 2026 losses, $600 billion compute spend through 2030, and unproven profitability path versus rivals like Anthropic and Google. Recent hires like ex-DocuSign CFO Sarah Friar signal Q4 2026 IPO preparations, but absent S-1 filing and regulatory hurdles sustain uncertainty in this closely contested market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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