SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by its confidential SEC filing reported April 1, targeting a record $1.75 trillion valuation and $75 billion raise for a potential June listing—the biggest underwriting syndicate ever assembled. The recent merger with xAI, absorbing its artificial intelligence capabilities into SpaceX's Starlink and orbital ambitions, has supercharged sentiment amid explosive satellite revenue growth, outpacing AI rivals like OpenAI (4.3%) and Anthropic (4.2%), which lack comparable IPO timelines or scale. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect lingering pre-merger hype, while others trail due to no fresh catalysts; watch SEC review and roadshow for shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於SpaceX 90%
OpenAI 4.3%
Anthropic 4.1%
Kraken <1%
$1,638,677 交易量
$1,638,677 交易量
2026-12-31
SpaceX
90%
OpenAI
4%
Anthropic
4%
Kraken
1%
Discord
1%
Stripe
<1%
Databricks
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
SpaceX 90%
OpenAI 4.3%
Anthropic 4.1%
Kraken <1%
$1,638,677 交易量
$1,638,677 交易量
2026-12-31
SpaceX
$182,591 交易量
90%
OpenAI
$297,620 交易量
4%
Anthropic
$343,954 交易量
4%
Kraken
$375,345 交易量
1%
Discord
$68,585 交易量
1%
Stripe
$39,128 交易量
<1%
Databricks
$68,389 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$85,048 交易量
<1%
Waymo
$45,601 交易量
<1%
Revolut
$25,546 交易量
<1%
Perplexity AI
$53,793 交易量
<1%
SHEIN
$53,078 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by its confidential SEC filing reported April 1, targeting a record $1.75 trillion valuation and $75 billion raise for a potential June listing—the biggest underwriting syndicate ever assembled. The recent merger with xAI, absorbing its artificial intelligence capabilities into SpaceX's Starlink and orbital ambitions, has supercharged sentiment amid explosive satellite revenue growth, outpacing AI rivals like OpenAI (4.3%) and Anthropic (4.2%), which lack comparable IPO timelines or scale. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect lingering pre-merger hype, while others trail due to no fresh catalysts; watch SEC review and roadshow for shifts.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市場開放時間： Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
交易量
$1,638,677結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by its confidential SEC filing reported April 1, targeting a record $1.75 trillion valuation and $75 billion raise for a potential June listing—the biggest underwriting syndicate ever assembled. The recent merger with xAI, absorbing its artificial intelligence capabilities into SpaceX's Starlink and orbital ambitions, has supercharged sentiment amid explosive satellite revenue growth, outpacing AI rivals like OpenAI (4.3%) and Anthropic (4.2%), which lack comparable IPO timelines or scale. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect lingering pre-merger hype, while others trail due to no fresh catalysts; watch SEC review and roadshow for shifts.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$1,638,677結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by its confidential SEC filing reported April 1, targeting a record $1.75 trillion valuation and $75 billion raise for a potential June listing—the biggest underwriting syndicate ever assembled. The recent merger with xAI, absorbing its artificial intelligence capabilities into SpaceX's Starlink and orbital ambitions, has supercharged sentiment amid explosive satellite revenue growth, outpacing AI rivals like OpenAI (4.3%) and Anthropic (4.2%), which lack comparable IPO timelines or scale. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect lingering pre-merger hype, while others trail due to no fresh catalysts; watch SEC review and roadshow for shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions