Trader sentiment crowns Anthropic with a 49.5% implied probability of holding the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control On leaderboard by April's end, fueled by Claude 3.5 Sonnet's sustained dominance in stylistic instruction-following benchmarks and whispers of an upgraded Claude 4 release in Q2 2025. Google trails at 17% amid Gemini 2.0 multimodal previews promising refined control, while OpenAI's 6.5% reflects delays in o1-pro successors like GPT-5. Challengers like Mistral, xAI's Grok-3, and Chinese contenders DeepSeek, Moonshot, ByteDance, Z.ai, and Meituan (all ~5-6%) gain traction from open-weight models crushing cost-efficient evals, though proprietary edges favor U.S. leaders; watch April leaks and ELO updates for shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Anthropic 50%
Google 17%
OpenAI 7%
ByteDance 7%
$15,272 交易量
$15,272 交易量

Anthropic
50%

17%

OpenAI
7%

ByteDance
7%

DeepSeek
7%

Moonshot
6%

Mistral
6%

Z.ai
6%

Meituan
6%

xAI
5%

Amazon
5%

Alibaba
5%

Baidu
5%
Anthropic 50%
Google 17%
OpenAI 7%
ByteDance 7%
$15,272 交易量
$15,272 交易量

Anthropic
50%

17%

OpenAI
7%

ByteDance
7%

DeepSeek
7%

Moonshot
6%

Mistral
6%

Z.ai
6%

Meituan
6%

xAI
5%

Amazon
5%

Alibaba
5%

Baidu
5%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間: Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment crowns Anthropic with a 49.5% implied probability of holding the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control On leaderboard by April's end, fueled by Claude 3.5 Sonnet's sustained dominance in stylistic instruction-following benchmarks and whispers of an upgraded Claude 4 release in Q2 2025. Google trails at 17% amid Gemini 2.0 multimodal previews promising refined control, while OpenAI's 6.5% reflects delays in o1-pro successors like GPT-5. Challengers like Mistral, xAI's Grok-3, and Chinese contenders DeepSeek, Moonshot, ByteDance, Z.ai, and Meituan (all ~5-6%) gain traction from open-weight models crushing cost-efficient evals, though proprietary edges favor U.S. leaders; watch April leaks and ELO updates for shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions