Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, released in early March 2026, has seized the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, excelling in complex reasoning, engineering tasks, and low hallucination rates across benchmarks like SWE-bench and Humanity's Last Exam, solidifying trader consensus on its frontier large language model supremacy. This follows a frenzy of March launches—including OpenAI's GPT-5.4, Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, and xAI's Grok 4.20—that narrowed but failed to surpass Anthropic's edge. Competitive dynamics intensify with rumored April releases like GPT-5.5, Gemini 3.1 Flash, DeepSeek V4, and Claude Sonnet 4.7 potentially reshaping rankings before the June 30 resolution, as weekly model cycles test sustained leadership amid scaling compute races and safety constraints.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$1,399,972 交易量
2026-06-30
OpenAI
28%
xAI
12%
阿里巴巴
10%
DeepSeek
7%
Meta
6%
Z.ai
5%
百度
4%
Mistral
4%
Nvidia
4%
美團
3%
$1,399,972 交易量
OpenAI
$340,246 交易量
28%
xAI
$539,667 交易量
12%
阿里巴巴
$4,740 交易量
10%
DeepSeek
$223,298 交易量
7%
Meta
$12,822 交易量
6%
Z.ai
$4,402 交易量
5%
百度
$1,924 交易量
4%
Mistral
$6,347 交易量
4%
Nvidia
$5,843 交易量
4%
美團
$2,712 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, released in early March 2026, has seized the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, excelling in complex reasoning, engineering tasks, and low hallucination rates across benchmarks like SWE-bench and Humanity's Last Exam, solidifying trader consensus on its frontier large language model supremacy. This follows a frenzy of March launches—including OpenAI's GPT-5.4, Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, and xAI's Grok 4.20—that narrowed but failed to surpass Anthropic's edge. Competitive dynamics intensify with rumored April releases like GPT-5.5, Gemini 3.1 Flash, DeepSeek V4, and Claude Sonnet 4.7 potentially reshaping rankings before the June 30 resolution, as weekly model cycles test sustained leadership amid scaling compute races and safety constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
市場開放時間： Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$1,399,972結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, released in early March 2026, has seized the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, excelling in complex reasoning, engineering tasks, and low hallucination rates across benchmarks like SWE-bench and Humanity's Last Exam, solidifying trader consensus on its frontier large language model supremacy. This follows a frenzy of March launches—including OpenAI's GPT-5.4, Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, and xAI's Grok 4.20—that narrowed but failed to surpass Anthropic's edge. Competitive dynamics intensify with rumored April releases like GPT-5.5, Gemini 3.1 Flash, DeepSeek V4, and Claude Sonnet 4.7 potentially reshaping rankings before the June 30 resolution, as weekly model cycles test sustained leadership amid scaling compute races and safety constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
交易量
$1,399,972結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, released in early March 2026, has seized the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, excelling in complex reasoning, engineering tasks, and low hallucination rates across benchmarks like SWE-bench and Humanity's Last Exam, solidifying trader consensus on its frontier large language model supremacy. This follows a frenzy of March launches—including OpenAI's GPT-5.4, Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, and xAI's Grok 4.20—that narrowed but failed to surpass Anthropic's edge. Competitive dynamics intensify with rumored April releases like GPT-5.5, Gemini 3.1 Flash, DeepSeek V4, and Claude Sonnet 4.7 potentially reshaping rankings before the June 30 resolution, as weekly model cycles test sustained leadership amid scaling compute races and safety constraints.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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