Trader sentiment on Polymarket favors OpenAI at 28% implied probability to hold the #1 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by June 30, driven by reports of the company prepping a major large language model leap alongside Anthropic, despite Claude Opus 4.6 currently dominating with top ELO scores in text and style-controlled arenas. xAI follows at 12% odds, bolstered by Grok-4.20 beta's rapid climb to #4, while Chinese challengers like DeepSeek and Alibaba linger at 7-10% amid open-source gains. The frontier race remains neck-and-neck with Google Gemini 3.1 preview at #3; key catalysts include imminent model releases, funding announcements, and benchmark updates that could reshape competitive positioning before the deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$1,401,175 交易量
2026-06-30
OpenAI
27%
xAI
12%
阿里巴巴
10%
DeepSeek
7%
Meta
5%
Z.ai
5%
百度
4%
Mistral
4%
Nvidia
4%
美團
3%
$1,401,175 交易量
OpenAI
$341,420 交易量
27%
xAI
$539,667 交易量
12%
阿里巴巴
$4,740 交易量
10%
DeepSeek
$223,298 交易量
7%
Meta
$12,822 交易量
5%
Z.ai
$4,402 交易量
5%
百度
$1,924 交易量
4%
Mistral
$6,377 交易量
4%
Nvidia
$5,843 交易量
4%
美團
$2,712 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader sentiment on Polymarket favors OpenAI at 28% implied probability to hold the #1 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by June 30, driven by reports of the company prepping a major large language model leap alongside Anthropic, despite Claude Opus 4.6 currently dominating with top ELO scores in text and style-controlled arenas. xAI follows at 12% odds, bolstered by Grok-4.20 beta's rapid climb to #4, while Chinese challengers like DeepSeek and Alibaba linger at 7-10% amid open-source gains. The frontier race remains neck-and-neck with Google Gemini 3.1 preview at #3; key catalysts include imminent model releases, funding announcements, and benchmark updates that could reshape competitive positioning before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
市場開放時間： Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$1,401,175結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader sentiment on Polymarket favors OpenAI at 28% implied probability to hold the #1 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by June 30, driven by reports of the company prepping a major large language model leap alongside Anthropic, despite Claude Opus 4.6 currently dominating with top ELO scores in text and style-controlled arenas. xAI follows at 12% odds, bolstered by Grok-4.20 beta's rapid climb to #4, while Chinese challengers like DeepSeek and Alibaba linger at 7-10% amid open-source gains. The frontier race remains neck-and-neck with Google Gemini 3.1 preview at #3; key catalysts include imminent model releases, funding announcements, and benchmark updates that could reshape competitive positioning before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
交易量
$1,401,175結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Polymarket favors OpenAI at 28% implied probability to hold the #1 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by June 30, driven by reports of the company prepping a major large language model leap alongside Anthropic, despite Claude Opus 4.6 currently dominating with top ELO scores in text and style-controlled arenas. xAI follows at 12% odds, bolstered by Grok-4.20 beta's rapid climb to #4, while Chinese challengers like DeepSeek and Alibaba linger at 7-10% amid open-source gains. The frontier race remains neck-and-neck with Google Gemini 3.1 preview at #3; key catalysts include imminent model releases, funding announcements, and benchmark updates that could reshape competitive positioning before the deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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