Market icon

到6月30日,哪些公司將擁有首屈一指的人工智能模型?

Market icon

到6月30日,哪些公司將擁有首屈一指的人工智能模型?

$1,401,175 交易量

2026-06-30
Polymarket

$1,401,175 交易量

Polymarket
Market icon

OpenAI

$341,420 交易量

27%

Market icon

xAI

$539,667 交易量

12%

Market icon

阿里巴巴

$4,740 交易量

10%

Market icon

DeepSeek

$223,298 交易量

7%

Market icon

Meta

$12,822 交易量

5%

Market icon

Z.ai

$4,402 交易量

5%

Market icon

百度

$1,924 交易量

4%

Market icon

Mistral

$6,377 交易量

4%

Market icon

Nvidia

$5,843 交易量

4%

Market icon

美團

$2,712 交易量

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader sentiment on Polymarket favors OpenAI at 28% implied probability to hold the #1 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by June 30, driven by reports of the company prepping a major large language model leap alongside Anthropic, despite Claude Opus 4.6 currently dominating with top ELO scores in text and style-controlled arenas. xAI follows at 12% odds, bolstered by Grok-4.20 beta's rapid climb to #4, while Chinese challengers like DeepSeek and Alibaba linger at 7-10% amid open-source gains. The frontier race remains neck-and-neck with Google Gemini 3.1 preview at #3; key catalysts include imminent model releases, funding announcements, and benchmark updates that could reshape competitive positioning before the deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
交易量
$1,401,175
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader sentiment on Polymarket favors OpenAI at 28% implied probability to hold the #1 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by June 30, driven by reports of the company prepping a major large language model leap alongside Anthropic, despite Claude Opus 4.6 currently dominating with top ELO scores in text and style-controlled arenas. xAI follows at 12% odds, bolstered by Grok-4.20 beta's rapid climb to #4, while Chinese challengers like DeepSeek and Alibaba linger at 7-10% amid open-source gains. The frontier race remains neck-and-neck with Google Gemini 3.1 preview at #3; key catalysts include imminent model releases, funding announcements, and benchmark updates that could reshape competitive positioning before the deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
交易量
$1,401,175
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"到6月30日,哪些公司將擁有首屈一指的人工智能模型?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 100%, followed by "OpenAI" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "到6月30日,哪些公司將擁有首屈一指的人工智能模型?" has generated $1.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "到6月30日,哪些公司將擁有首屈一指的人工智能模型?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "到6月30日,哪些公司將擁有首屈一指的人工智能模型?" is "Anthropic" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "OpenAI" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "到6月30日,哪些公司將擁有首屈一指的人工智能模型?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.