Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 65.3% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the top AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's near-lead on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—trailing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro by just two Elo points at 1503—and dominance in reasoning benchmarks like GPQA at 91.9%, alongside leaks revealing a forthcoming "Mythos" model promising a step-change in capabilities. Google follows at 24.5%, buoyed by Gemini 3.1 Pro's March leaderboard crown and the April 2 release of Gemma 4, their most advanced open-weight models derived from Gemini research, signaling robust iteration. OpenAI's 6.5% reflects stagnation after GPT-5.4's early March debut and older model retirements, with xAI and others trailing amid fierce competition. Watch for pre-June announcements and LMSYS updates as key swing factors.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Anthropic 65.3%
Google 25%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 1.6%
$2,984,536 交易量
$2,984,536 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
65%
25%
OpenAI
7%
xAI
2%
DeepSeek
1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Mistral
<1%
美團
<1%
Anthropic 65.3%
Google 25%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 1.6%
$2,984,536 交易量
$2,984,536 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$575,931 交易量
65%
$319,568 交易量
25%
OpenAI
$107,728 交易量
7%
xAI
$857,748 交易量
2%
DeepSeek
$241,380 交易量
1%
阿里巴巴
$117,003 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$175,128 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$129,145 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$296,696 交易量
<1%
美團
$164,209 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 65.3% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the top AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's near-lead on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—trailing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro by just two Elo points at 1503—and dominance in reasoning benchmarks like GPQA at 91.9%, alongside leaks revealing a forthcoming "Mythos" model promising a step-change in capabilities. Google follows at 24.5%, buoyed by Gemini 3.1 Pro's March leaderboard crown and the April 2 release of Gemma 4, their most advanced open-weight models derived from Gemini research, signaling robust iteration. OpenAI's 6.5% reflects stagnation after GPT-5.4's early March debut and older model retirements, with xAI and others trailing amid fierce competition. Watch for pre-June announcements and LMSYS updates as key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$2,984,536結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 65.3% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the top AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's near-lead on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—trailing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro by just two Elo points at 1503—and dominance in reasoning benchmarks like GPQA at 91.9%, alongside leaks revealing a forthcoming "Mythos" model promising a step-change in capabilities. Google follows at 24.5%, buoyed by Gemini 3.1 Pro's March leaderboard crown and the April 2 release of Gemma 4, their most advanced open-weight models derived from Gemini research, signaling robust iteration. OpenAI's 6.5% reflects stagnation after GPT-5.4's early March debut and older model retirements, with xAI and others trailing amid fierce competition. Watch for pre-June announcements and LMSYS updates as key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$2,984,536結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 65.3% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the top AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's near-lead on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—trailing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro by just two Elo points at 1503—and dominance in reasoning benchmarks like GPQA at 91.9%, alongside leaks revealing a forthcoming "Mythos" model promising a step-change in capabilities. Google follows at 24.5%, buoyed by Gemini 3.1 Pro's March leaderboard crown and the April 2 release of Gemma 4, their most advanced open-weight models derived from Gemini research, signaling robust iteration. OpenAI's 6.5% reflects stagnation after GPT-5.4's early March debut and older model retirements, with xAI and others trailing amid fierce competition. Watch for pre-June announcements and LMSYS updates as key swing factors.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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