Traders see Anthropic holding a strong lead in implied odds for the best large language model by end of June because its Claude series continues to deliver top results on coding benchmarks and agentic workflows that matter most to enterprise users. Recent releases such as Claude 4.5 Sonnet and Opus 4.6 have reinforced this positioning through reliable long-context performance and safety-focused training that sets them apart from competitors. Google’s Gemini 3.5 Flash update two days ago has narrowed the gap on reasoning tasks and human-preference leaderboards, yet the market still prices Anthropic ahead due to its proven production reliability. OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants trail as recent lightweight drops have not shifted core capability perceptions, while smaller labs like xAI and DeepSeek remain further behind on frontier benchmarks. Key catalysts ahead include any major model refreshes or new benchmark results before the June 30 resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 70.9%
Google 26%
OpenAI 2.4%
xAI <1%
$6,509,137 交易量
$6,509,137 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
71%
26%
OpenAI
2%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Meta
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
微軟
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
美團
<1%
百度
<1%
Anthropic 70.9%
Google 26%
OpenAI 2.4%
xAI <1%
$6,509,137 交易量
$6,509,137 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$896,121 交易量
71%
$609,650 交易量
26%
OpenAI
$383,600 交易量
2%
xAI
$1,115,978 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$528,617 交易量
<1%
Meta
$165,989 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$329,136 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$509,454 交易量
<1%
微軟
$183,410 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$185,739 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$188,178 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$416,988 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$396,783 交易量
<1%
美團
$412,636 交易量
<1%
百度
$186,857 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders see Anthropic holding a strong lead in implied odds for the best large language model by end of June because its Claude series continues to deliver top results on coding benchmarks and agentic workflows that matter most to enterprise users. Recent releases such as Claude 4.5 Sonnet and Opus 4.6 have reinforced this positioning through reliable long-context performance and safety-focused training that sets them apart from competitors. Google’s Gemini 3.5 Flash update two days ago has narrowed the gap on reasoning tasks and human-preference leaderboards, yet the market still prices Anthropic ahead due to its proven production reliability. OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants trail as recent lightweight drops have not shifted core capability perceptions, while smaller labs like xAI and DeepSeek remain further behind on frontier benchmarks. Key catalysts ahead include any major model refreshes or new benchmark results before the June 30 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$6,509,137結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders see Anthropic holding a strong lead in implied odds for the best large language model by end of June because its Claude series continues to deliver top results on coding benchmarks and agentic workflows that matter most to enterprise users. Recent releases such as Claude 4.5 Sonnet and Opus 4.6 have reinforced this positioning through reliable long-context performance and safety-focused training that sets them apart from competitors. Google’s Gemini 3.5 Flash update two days ago has narrowed the gap on reasoning tasks and human-preference leaderboards, yet the market still prices Anthropic ahead due to its proven production reliability. OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants trail as recent lightweight drops have not shifted core capability perceptions, while smaller labs like xAI and DeepSeek remain further behind on frontier benchmarks. Key catalysts ahead include any major model refreshes or new benchmark results before the June 30 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$6,509,137結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders see Anthropic holding a strong lead in implied odds for the best large language model by end of June because its Claude series continues to deliver top results on coding benchmarks and agentic workflows that matter most to enterprise users. Recent releases such as Claude 4.5 Sonnet and Opus 4.6 have reinforced this positioning through reliable long-context performance and safety-focused training that sets them apart from competitors. Google’s Gemini 3.5 Flash update two days ago has narrowed the gap on reasoning tasks and human-preference leaderboards, yet the market still prices Anthropic ahead due to its proven production reliability. OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants trail as recent lightweight drops have not shifted core capability perceptions, while smaller labs like xAI and DeepSeek remain further behind on frontier benchmarks. Key catalysts ahead include any major model refreshes or new benchmark results before the June 30 resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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