Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a SpaceX IPO closing market cap between $1.5 trillion and $2.5 trillion, with 44% implied probability for $1.5T–$2.0T and 35% for $2.0T–$2.5T, driven by the company's confidential S-1 filing last week targeting over $1.75 trillion valuation and a potential June listing to raise up to $75 billion. Starlink's explosive subscriber growth to over 10 million users and projected $15 billion+ annual revenue, combined with Starship's rapid reusability milestones and dominance in 90%+ of global orbital launches, underpin this positioning amid a nascent space economy. Competitive edges over Blue Origin and ULA in cost-per-kilogram launches bolster sentiment, though final pricing hinges on public S-1 disclosures, macroeconomic volatility, and peer multiples from AI hyperscalers; watch for SEC review progress and roadshow details as key swing factors in this tight race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$1,694,239 交易量
$1,694,239 交易量
低於 1.0 兆
2%
1.0 兆 - 1.5 兆
6%
1.5 兆 - 2.0 兆
44%
2.0兆-2.5兆
35%
2.5 兆至 3.0 兆
6%
3.0 兆 - 3.5 兆
4%
3.5兆+
1%
2028 年前不會上市
3%
$1,694,239 交易量
$1,694,239 交易量
低於 1.0 兆
$35,167 交易量
2%
1.0 兆 - 1.5 兆
$28,037 交易量
6%
1.5 兆 - 2.0 兆
$43,202 交易量
44%
2.0兆-2.5兆
$41,005 交易量
35%
2.5 兆至 3.0 兆
$792,416 交易量
6%
3.0 兆 - 3.5 兆
$450,076 交易量
4%
3.5兆+
$45,544 交易量
1%
2028 年前不會上市
$258,791 交易量
3%
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a SpaceX IPO closing market cap between $1.5 trillion and $2.5 trillion, with 44% implied probability for $1.5T–$2.0T and 35% for $2.0T–$2.5T, driven by the company's confidential S-1 filing last week targeting over $1.75 trillion valuation and a potential June listing to raise up to $75 billion. Starlink's explosive subscriber growth to over 10 million users and projected $15 billion+ annual revenue, combined with Starship's rapid reusability milestones and dominance in 90%+ of global orbital launches, underpin this positioning amid a nascent space economy. Competitive edges over Blue Origin and ULA in cost-per-kilogram launches bolster sentiment, though final pricing hinges on public S-1 disclosures, macroeconomic volatility, and peer multiples from AI hyperscalers; watch for SEC review progress and roadshow details as key swing factors in this tight race.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市場開放時間： Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
交易量
$1,694,239市場開放時間
Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a SpaceX IPO closing market cap between $1.5 trillion and $2.5 trillion, with 44% implied probability for $1.5T–$2.0T and 35% for $2.0T–$2.5T, driven by the company's confidential S-1 filing last week targeting over $1.75 trillion valuation and a potential June listing to raise up to $75 billion. Starlink's explosive subscriber growth to over 10 million users and projected $15 billion+ annual revenue, combined with Starship's rapid reusability milestones and dominance in 90%+ of global orbital launches, underpin this positioning amid a nascent space economy. Competitive edges over Blue Origin and ULA in cost-per-kilogram launches bolster sentiment, though final pricing hinges on public S-1 disclosures, macroeconomic volatility, and peer multiples from AI hyperscalers; watch for SEC review progress and roadshow details as key swing factors in this tight race.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$1,694,239市場開放時間
Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a SpaceX IPO closing market cap between $1.5 trillion and $2.5 trillion, with 44% implied probability for $1.5T–$2.0T and 35% for $2.0T–$2.5T, driven by the company's confidential S-1 filing last week targeting over $1.75 trillion valuation and a potential June listing to raise up to $75 billion. Starlink's explosive subscriber growth to over 10 million users and projected $15 billion+ annual revenue, combined with Starship's rapid reusability milestones and dominance in 90%+ of global orbital launches, underpin this positioning amid a nascent space economy. Competitive edges over Blue Origin and ULA in cost-per-kilogram launches bolster sentiment, though final pricing hinges on public S-1 disclosures, macroeconomic volatility, and peer multiples from AI hyperscalers; watch for SEC review progress and roadshow details as key swing factors in this tight race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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