SpaceX's confidential IPO filing on April 1, targeting a valuation exceeding $2 trillion—up from an initial $1.75 trillion—has concentrated trader sentiment in the 1.5T-2.5T range, with 44% implied probability for 1.5T-2.0T and 35.5% for the next bin, reflecting close contestation over final pricing amid volatile public markets. This momentum stems from February's xAI merger, enhancing AI-driven space compute via the TERAFAB project with Tesla, alongside Starlink's satellite internet dominance and projected $24 billion 2026 revenue. Starship V3's first flight, slated in 4-6 weeks, bolsters reusable rocket scalability, differentiating SpaceX from legacy players like Boeing. Upcoming June listing and FAA approvals loom as key catalysts, though macroeconomic headwinds could temper the mega-valuation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$1,694,451 交易量
$1,694,451 交易量
低於 1.0 兆
2%
1.0 兆 - 1.5 兆
7%
1.5 兆 - 2.0 兆
44%
2.0兆-2.5兆
36%
2.5 兆至 3.0 兆
6%
3.0 兆 - 3.5 兆
4%
3.5兆+
1%
2028 年前不會上市
3%
$1,694,451 交易量
$1,694,451 交易量
低於 1.0 兆
2%
1.0 兆 - 1.5 兆
7%
1.5 兆 - 2.0 兆
44%
2.0兆-2.5兆
36%
2.5 兆至 3.0 兆
6%
3.0 兆 - 3.5 兆
4%
3.5兆+
1%
2028 年前不會上市
3%
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市場開放時間: Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...SpaceX's confidential IPO filing on April 1, targeting a valuation exceeding $2 trillion—up from an initial $1.75 trillion—has concentrated trader sentiment in the 1.5T-2.5T range, with 44% implied probability for 1.5T-2.0T and 35.5% for the next bin, reflecting close contestation over final pricing amid volatile public markets. This momentum stems from February's xAI merger, enhancing AI-driven space compute via the TERAFAB project with Tesla, alongside Starlink's satellite internet dominance and projected $24 billion 2026 revenue. Starship V3's first flight, slated in 4-6 weeks, bolsters reusable rocket scalability, differentiating SpaceX from legacy players like Boeing. Upcoming June listing and FAA approvals loom as key catalysts, though macroeconomic headwinds could temper the mega-valuation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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