Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73.5% implied probability against Tesla selling its steerless Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by the vehicle's nascent production ramp at Giga Texas and unresolved regulatory hurdles for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD). Elon Musk confirmed low-volume output began in February with full April scaling, but emphasized "agonizingly slow" early rates amid novel manufacturing challenges, while Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,023 vehicles omitted any Cybercab units. Tesla's track record of timeline slips and FSD approval delays in key markets like California and Texas reinforces skepticism, despite sub-$30k pricing pledges; Q1 earnings on April 22 could provide catalysts on ramp progress and autonomy certifications.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$31,893 交易量
$31,893 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$31,893 交易量
$31,893 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73.5% implied probability against Tesla selling its steerless Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by the vehicle's nascent production ramp at Giga Texas and unresolved regulatory hurdles for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD). Elon Musk confirmed low-volume output began in February with full April scaling, but emphasized "agonizingly slow" early rates amid novel manufacturing challenges, while Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,023 vehicles omitted any Cybercab units. Tesla's track record of timeline slips and FSD approval delays in key markets like California and Texas reinforces skepticism, despite sub-$30k pricing pledges; Q1 earnings on April 22 could provide catalysts on ramp progress and autonomy certifications.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
交易量
$31,893結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73.5% implied probability against Tesla selling its steerless Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by the vehicle's nascent production ramp at Giga Texas and unresolved regulatory hurdles for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD). Elon Musk confirmed low-volume output began in February with full April scaling, but emphasized "agonizingly slow" early rates amid novel manufacturing challenges, while Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,023 vehicles omitted any Cybercab units. Tesla's track record of timeline slips and FSD approval delays in key markets like California and Texas reinforces skepticism, despite sub-$30k pricing pledges; Q1 earnings on April 22 could provide catalysts on ramp progress and autonomy certifications.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$31,893結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73.5% implied probability against Tesla selling its steerless Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by the vehicle's nascent production ramp at Giga Texas and unresolved regulatory hurdles for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD). Elon Musk confirmed low-volume output began in February with full April scaling, but emphasized "agonizingly slow" early rates amid novel manufacturing challenges, while Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,023 vehicles omitted any Cybercab units. Tesla's track record of timeline slips and FSD approval delays in key markets like California and Texas reinforces skepticism, despite sub-$30k pricing pledges; Q1 earnings on April 22 could provide catalysts on ramp progress and autonomy certifications.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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