Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns OpenAI's Sam Altman the highest implied probability at 22% of departing before year-end 2026, driven by OpenAI's board volatility history, Elon Musk's recent lawsuit testimony highlighting governance tensions, and ambitious $122 billion funding pursuits amid AI safety scrutiny. Apple's Tim Cook announcement on April 20 to step down as CEO effective September 1—transitioning to executive chairman with John Ternus succeeding—validated early market signals on succession risks and intensified sector-wide focus on leadership stability. Coinbase's Brian Armstrong sits at 12% following 14% staff layoffs for AI efficiencies, while Twitch's Dan Clancy faces 9% odds amid profitability woes and creator backlash; Amazon's Andy Jassy (10%) and Google's Sundar Pichai (3%) show lower risks. Q2 earnings calls and AI conferences through December could spark shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$691,687 交易量

Sam Altman - OpenAI
20%

Brian Armstrong - Coinbase
12%

Andy Jassy - 亞馬遜
10%

Dan Clancy - Twitch
9%

Sundar Pichai - Google
2%
$691,687 交易量

Sam Altman - OpenAI
20%

Brian Armstrong - Coinbase
12%

Andy Jassy - 亞馬遜
10%

Dan Clancy - Twitch
9%

Sundar Pichai - Google
2%
An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.
市場開放時間: Nov 18, 2025, 10:41 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns OpenAI's Sam Altman the highest implied probability at 22% of departing before year-end 2026, driven by OpenAI's board volatility history, Elon Musk's recent lawsuit testimony highlighting governance tensions, and ambitious $122 billion funding pursuits amid AI safety scrutiny. Apple's Tim Cook announcement on April 20 to step down as CEO effective September 1—transitioning to executive chairman with John Ternus succeeding—validated early market signals on succession risks and intensified sector-wide focus on leadership stability. Coinbase's Brian Armstrong sits at 12% following 14% staff layoffs for AI efficiencies, while Twitch's Dan Clancy faces 9% odds amid profitability woes and creator backlash; Amazon's Andy Jassy (10%) and Google's Sundar Pichai (3%) show lower risks. Q2 earnings calls and AI conferences through December could spark shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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