Microsoft's announcement and launch of MAI-Thinking-1 at Build 2026 in early June established the model as its first in-house reasoning system, trained from scratch on licensed data with 35 billion active parameters in a mixture-of-experts architecture. Traders have focused on this milestone as the primary driver of sentiment because it signals Microsoft's accelerated shift toward proprietary large language models to cut reliance on external labs while delivering competitive performance on benchmarks like SWE-Bench Pro and user preference tests against Claude Sonnet. The mid-sized design emphasizes efficiency, lower token costs, and strong results in multi-step reasoning, code generation, and enterprise tasks, placing it alongside specialized offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic. Key upcoming catalysts include wider public availability beyond private preview, integration into Azure and Copilot platforms, and any follow-on releases or capability updates that could shift developer adoption metrics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
2026-09-30
September 30
32%
December 31
53%
$488 交易量
September 30
$187 交易量
32%
December 31
$301 交易量
53%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft's announcement and launch of MAI-Thinking-1 at Build 2026 in early June established the model as its first in-house reasoning system, trained from scratch on licensed data with 35 billion active parameters in a mixture-of-experts architecture. Traders have focused on this milestone as the primary driver of sentiment because it signals Microsoft's accelerated shift toward proprietary large language models to cut reliance on external labs while delivering competitive performance on benchmarks like SWE-Bench Pro and user preference tests against Claude Sonnet. The mid-sized design emphasizes efficiency, lower token costs, and strong results in multi-step reasoning, code generation, and enterprise tasks, placing it alongside specialized offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic. Key upcoming catalysts include wider public availability beyond private preview, integration into Azure and Copilot platforms, and any follow-on releases or capability updates that could shift developer adoption metrics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
交易量
$488結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft's announcement and launch of MAI-Thinking-1 at Build 2026 in early June established the model as its first in-house reasoning system, trained from scratch on licensed data with 35 billion active parameters in a mixture-of-experts architecture. Traders have focused on this milestone as the primary driver of sentiment because it signals Microsoft's accelerated shift toward proprietary large language models to cut reliance on external labs while delivering competitive performance on benchmarks like SWE-Bench Pro and user preference tests against Claude Sonnet. The mid-sized design emphasizes efficiency, lower token costs, and strong results in multi-step reasoning, code generation, and enterprise tasks, placing it alongside specialized offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic. Key upcoming catalysts include wider public availability beyond private preview, integration into Azure and Copilot platforms, and any follow-on releases or capability updates that could shift developer adoption metrics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$488結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Microsoft's announcement and launch of MAI-Thinking-1 at Build 2026 in early June established the model as its first in-house reasoning system, trained from scratch on licensed data with 35 billion active parameters in a mixture-of-experts architecture. Traders have focused on this milestone as the primary driver of sentiment because it signals Microsoft's accelerated shift toward proprietary large language models to cut reliance on external labs while delivering competitive performance on benchmarks like SWE-Bench Pro and user preference tests against Claude Sonnet. The mid-sized design emphasizes efficiency, lower token costs, and strong results in multi-step reasoning, code generation, and enterprise tasks, placing it alongside specialized offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic. Key upcoming catalysts include wider public availability beyond private preview, integration into Azure and Copilot platforms, and any follow-on releases or capability updates that could shift developer adoption metrics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions