Trader sentiment crowns Anthropic the frontrunner at 53.5% implied odds for the #2 AI model on the end-of-April leaderboard with style control enabled, propelled by Claude 3 Opus's robust Elo scores in LMSYS Chatbot Arena, trailing only OpenAI's GPT-4o. Moonshot AI (40%) and Zhipu AI (37%) vie closely, fueled by Kimi's long-context prowess and GLM-4's benchmark surges in Chinese evals that presage global gains. Google (36.5%) and Mistral (36.0%) remain contenders via Gemini 1.5 Pro's multimodal feats and open-weight efficiency. Late-April leaderboard volatility, including Alibaba and Baidu tweaks, has traders calibrating positions ahead of the snapshot resolution amid slippery AI scaling timelines.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Anthropic 55%
Alibaba 31%
xAI 30%
Google 30%

Anthropic
55%

Alibaba
31%

xAI
30%

30%

Mistral
28%

ByteDance
27%

OpenAI
26%

Moonshot
26%

Meituan
26%

Baidu
25%

DeepSeek
25%

Amazon
25%

Z.ai
25%
Anthropic 55%
Alibaba 31%
xAI 30%
Google 30%

Anthropic
55%

Alibaba
31%

xAI
30%

30%

Mistral
28%

ByteDance
27%

OpenAI
26%

Moonshot
26%

Meituan
26%

Baidu
25%

DeepSeek
25%

Amazon
25%

Z.ai
25%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間: Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment crowns Anthropic the frontrunner at 53.5% implied odds for the #2 AI model on the end-of-April leaderboard with style control enabled, propelled by Claude 3 Opus's robust Elo scores in LMSYS Chatbot Arena, trailing only OpenAI's GPT-4o. Moonshot AI (40%) and Zhipu AI (37%) vie closely, fueled by Kimi's long-context prowess and GLM-4's benchmark surges in Chinese evals that presage global gains. Google (36.5%) and Mistral (36.0%) remain contenders via Gemini 1.5 Pro's multimodal feats and open-weight efficiency. Late-April leaderboard volatility, including Alibaba and Baidu tweaks, has traders calibrating positions ahead of the snapshot resolution amid slippery AI scaling timelines.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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