Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026 (96.6% implied probability), driven by recent reporting from credible sources like The Information and Bloomberg indicating the Claude AI developer is targeting an October launch or later, after hiring Wilson Sonsini for preparations and following a massive $30 billion Series G funding round in February at a $380 billion valuation. Bankers anticipate a record $60 billion raise amid surging annual recurring revenue near $100 billion, but the Q4 timeline—bolstered by competitive pressures from OpenAI and xAI—leaves scant room for H1 acceleration absent an S-1 filing or surprise announcement. Realistic challenges include favorable market windows, regulatory tailwinds easing AI scrutiny, or accelerated frontier model releases prompting earlier liquidity needs, though historical IPO timelines for mega AI labs suggest delays are common.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於2026年6月30日前未IPO 96.6%
6000億+ 1.6%
4,000–6,000 億 <1%
2,000–3,000 億 <1%
$926,969 交易量
$926,969 交易量
2026-06-30
低於 1000 億
<1%
1000–2000 億美元
<1%
2,000–3,000 億
1%
3,000–4,000 億
1%
4,000–6,000 億
1%
6000億+
2%
2026年6月30日前未IPO
97%
2026年6月30日前未IPO 96.6%
6000億+ 1.6%
4,000–6,000 億 <1%
2,000–3,000 億 <1%
$926,969 交易量
$926,969 交易量
2026-06-30
低於 1000 億
$191,450 交易量
<1%
1000–2000 億美元
$64,479 交易量
<1%
2,000–3,000 億
$121,034 交易量
1%
3,000–4,000 億
$62,142 交易量
1%
4,000–6,000 億
$93,246 交易量
1%
6000億+
$232,651 交易量
2%
2026年6月30日前未IPO
$162,038 交易量
97%
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026 (96.6% implied probability), driven by recent reporting from credible sources like The Information and Bloomberg indicating the Claude AI developer is targeting an October launch or later, after hiring Wilson Sonsini for preparations and following a massive $30 billion Series G funding round in February at a $380 billion valuation. Bankers anticipate a record $60 billion raise amid surging annual recurring revenue near $100 billion, but the Q4 timeline—bolstered by competitive pressures from OpenAI and xAI—leaves scant room for H1 acceleration absent an S-1 filing or surprise announcement. Realistic challenges include favorable market windows, regulatory tailwinds easing AI scrutiny, or accelerated frontier model releases prompting earlier liquidity needs, though historical IPO timelines for mega AI labs suggest delays are common.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市場開放時間： Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
交易量
$926,969結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026 (96.6% implied probability), driven by recent reporting from credible sources like The Information and Bloomberg indicating the Claude AI developer is targeting an October launch or later, after hiring Wilson Sonsini for preparations and following a massive $30 billion Series G funding round in February at a $380 billion valuation. Bankers anticipate a record $60 billion raise amid surging annual recurring revenue near $100 billion, but the Q4 timeline—bolstered by competitive pressures from OpenAI and xAI—leaves scant room for H1 acceleration absent an S-1 filing or surprise announcement. Realistic challenges include favorable market windows, regulatory tailwinds easing AI scrutiny, or accelerated frontier model releases prompting earlier liquidity needs, though historical IPO timelines for mega AI labs suggest delays are common.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$926,969結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026 (96.6% implied probability), driven by recent reporting from credible sources like The Information and Bloomberg indicating the Claude AI developer is targeting an October launch or later, after hiring Wilson Sonsini for preparations and following a massive $30 billion Series G funding round in February at a $380 billion valuation. Bankers anticipate a record $60 billion raise amid surging annual recurring revenue near $100 billion, but the Q4 timeline—bolstered by competitive pressures from OpenAI and xAI—leaves scant room for H1 acceleration absent an S-1 filing or surprise announcement. Realistic challenges include favorable market windows, regulatory tailwinds easing AI scrutiny, or accelerated frontier model releases prompting earlier liquidity needs, though historical IPO timelines for mega AI labs suggest delays are common.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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