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科技·Llm

OpenAI宣布已在2027年之前實現AGI ？

Market icon
科技·Llm

OpenAI宣布已在2027年之前實現AGI ？

是

21% 機率
Polymarket

$47,292 交易量

是

21% 機率
Polymarket

$47,292 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 78.5% implied probability for OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI) achievement before 2027, driven primarily by the ARC-AGI-3 benchmark released last week, where frontier large language models like GPT-5.4 scored below 1%—far short of human performance at 100%—exposing persistent gaps in generalization and novel reasoning despite rapid scaling. OpenAI's recent GPT-5.4 release in early March advanced coding and knowledge work but fell short of AGI thresholds, while President Greg Brockman's fresh comments peg progress at 70-80% with "jagged intelligence," signaling breakthroughs remain elusive. The firm's "AGI Deployment" team rename and massive funding fueled hype, but benchmark realities and shifted timelines toward 2028 temper expectations ahead of potential Q2 model previews.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$47,292
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 78.5% implied probability for OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI) achievement before 2027, driven primarily by the ARC-AGI-3 benchmark released last week, where frontier large language models like GPT-5.4 scored below 1%—far short of human performance at 100%—exposing persistent gaps in generalization and novel reasoning despite rapid scaling. OpenAI's recent GPT-5.4 release in early March advanced coding and knowledge work but fell short of AGI thresholds, while President Greg Brockman's fresh comments peg progress at 70-80% with "jagged intelligence," signaling breakthroughs remain elusive. The firm's "AGI Deployment" team rename and massive funding fueled hype, but benchmark realities and shifted timelines toward 2028 temper expectations ahead of potential Q2 model previews.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$47,306
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"OpenAI宣布已在2027年之前實現AGI ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "OpenAI 宣布在 2027 年之前實現了 AGI？" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 21¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "OpenAI宣布已在2027年之前實現AGI ？" has generated $47.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 28, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "OpenAI宣布已在2027年之前實現AGI ？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "OpenAI宣布已在2027年之前實現AGI ？" is "OpenAI 宣布在 2027 年之前實現了 AGI？" at 21%, meaning the market assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "OpenAI宣布已在2027年之前實現AGI ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.