Japan Meteorological Agency observations from Tokyo's central station have locked in a daily maximum temperature of 17°C as of late afternoon on April 1, driving near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability. Persistent cloud cover, light rain, and a cool northerly airflow have suppressed solar heating, capping the diurnal peak consistent with short-range model ensembles from NOAA and ECMWF analogs showing highs below 18°C under similar spring conditions. Historical April 1 averages hover around 17.5°C, reinforcing this positioning. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-day clearing allowing 1°C of additional insolation before sunset, though official hourly data and sunset trajectory make higher outcomes unlikely ahead of final JMA resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 1?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 1?
17°C 100.0%
18°C <1%
19°C or higher <1%
$248,571 Объем
$248,571 Объем
1 апр. 2026 г.
17°C
100%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
17°C 100.0%
18°C <1%
19°C or higher <1%
$248,571 Объем
$248,571 Объем
1 апр. 2026 г.
17°C
$61,362 Объем
100%
18°C
$28,715 Объем
<1%
19°C or higher
$40,471 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency observations from Tokyo's central station have locked in a daily maximum temperature of 17°C as of late afternoon on April 1, driving near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability. Persistent cloud cover, light rain, and a cool northerly airflow have suppressed solar heating, capping the diurnal peak consistent with short-range model ensembles from NOAA and ECMWF analogs showing highs below 18°C under similar spring conditions. Historical April 1 averages hover around 17.5°C, reinforcing this positioning. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-day clearing allowing 1°C of additional insolation before sunset, though official hourly data and sunset trajectory make higher outcomes unlikely ahead of final JMA resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Объем
$248,571Дата окончания
1 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency observations from Tokyo's central station have locked in a daily maximum temperature of 17°C as of late afternoon on April 1, driving near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability. Persistent cloud cover, light rain, and a cool northerly airflow have suppressed solar heating, capping the diurnal peak consistent with short-range model ensembles from NOAA and ECMWF analogs showing highs below 18°C under similar spring conditions. Historical April 1 averages hover around 17.5°C, reinforcing this positioning. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-day clearing allowing 1°C of additional insolation before sunset, though official hourly data and sunset trajectory make higher outcomes unlikely ahead of final JMA resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$248,571Дата окончания
1 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan Meteorological Agency observations from Tokyo's central station have locked in a daily maximum temperature of 17°C as of late afternoon on April 1, driving near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability. Persistent cloud cover, light rain, and a cool northerly airflow have suppressed solar heating, capping the diurnal peak consistent with short-range model ensembles from NOAA and ECMWF analogs showing highs below 18°C under similar spring conditions. Historical April 1 averages hover around 17.5°C, reinforcing this positioning. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-day clearing allowing 1°C of additional insolation before sunset, though official hourly data and sunset trajectory make higher outcomes unlikely ahead of final JMA resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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