Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range temperature forecasts for Shenzhen on April 1, with 26°C edging out at 21.5% implied probability amid clustered odds for 25–28°C outcomes, aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble means from GFS and ECMWF models projecting daytime highs near 26°C under partly cloudy, humid conditions. Differentiating factors include model spread over cloud cover and sea breeze timing, which could suppress peaks to 25°C via convective showers or allow 27–28°C via clearer skies and urban heat island effects; recent March warmth (highs to 29°C) suggests upside potential, but early April climatology favors moderation around 25–27°C historical averages. New model runs and CMA updates expected within 24 hours could sharpen resolution ahead of the event.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 1?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 1?
26°C 38%
28°C 34%
25°C 20%
27°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
21°C or below
3%
22°C
9%
23°C
9%
24°C
15%
25°C
20%
26°C
22%
27°C
20%
28°C
18%
29°C
12%
30°C
10%
31°C or higher
2%
26°C 38%
28°C 34%
25°C 20%
27°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
21°C or below
$426 Объем
3%
22°C
$229 Объем
9%
23°C
$2 Объем
9%
24°C
$0 Объем
15%
25°C
$0 Объем
20%
26°C
$23 Объем
22%
27°C
$0 Объем
20%
28°C
$3 Объем
18%
29°C
$2 Объем
12%
30°C
$10 Объем
10%
31°C or higher
$9 Объем
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range temperature forecasts for Shenzhen on April 1, with 26°C edging out at 21.5% implied probability amid clustered odds for 25–28°C outcomes, aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble means from GFS and ECMWF models projecting daytime highs near 26°C under partly cloudy, humid conditions. Differentiating factors include model spread over cloud cover and sea breeze timing, which could suppress peaks to 25°C via convective showers or allow 27–28°C via clearer skies and urban heat island effects; recent March warmth (highs to 29°C) suggests upside potential, but early April climatology favors moderation around 25–27°C historical averages. New model runs and CMA updates expected within 24 hours could sharpen resolution ahead of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 3:21 PM ET
Объем
$705Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:21 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range temperature forecasts for Shenzhen on April 1, with 26°C edging out at 21.5% implied probability amid clustered odds for 25–28°C outcomes, aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble means from GFS and ECMWF models projecting daytime highs near 26°C under partly cloudy, humid conditions. Differentiating factors include model spread over cloud cover and sea breeze timing, which could suppress peaks to 25°C via convective showers or allow 27–28°C via clearer skies and urban heat island effects; recent March warmth (highs to 29°C) suggests upside potential, but early April climatology favors moderation around 25–27°C historical averages. New model runs and CMA updates expected within 24 hours could sharpen resolution ahead of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$705Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:21 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range temperature forecasts for Shenzhen on April 1, with 26°C edging out at 21.5% implied probability amid clustered odds for 25–28°C outcomes, aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble means from GFS and ECMWF models projecting daytime highs near 26°C under partly cloudy, humid conditions. Differentiating factors include model spread over cloud cover and sea breeze timing, which could suppress peaks to 25°C via convective showers or allow 27–28°C via clearer skies and urban heat island effects; recent March warmth (highs to 29°C) suggests upside potential, but early April climatology favors moderation around 25–27°C historical averages. New model runs and CMA updates expected within 24 hours could sharpen resolution ahead of the event.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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