Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in National Weather Service and ensemble model forecasts for Houston's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities evenly split across outcomes from 71°F or below to 90°F+, driven by divergent GFS and ECMWF runs showing potential highs clustered near the climatological average of 78°F but varying by 10–15°F due to unresolved upper-level ridge persistence versus possible weak cold front timing. Recent model updates highlight sensitivity to southerly winds enhancing warm advection or cloud cover suppressing peaks, amid a warm March pattern fading into spring norms. Watch for NWS Houston advisories and 00Z/12Z model refreshes through April 2, which could sharpen resolution criteria around official observations at Bush Intercontinental Airport.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Houston on April 4?
Highest temperature in Houston on April 4?
71°F or below 41%
90°F or higher 41%
72-73°F 18%
74-75°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
71°F or below
41%
72-73°F
18%
74-75°F
18%
76-77°F
17%
78-79°F
17%
80-81°F
17%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
17%
88-89°F
17%
90°F or higher
41%
71°F or below 41%
90°F or higher 41%
72-73°F 18%
74-75°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
71°F or below
$101 Объем
41%
72-73°F
$0 Объем
18%
74-75°F
$0 Объем
18%
76-77°F
$0 Объем
17%
78-79°F
$0 Объем
17%
80-81°F
$0 Объем
17%
82-83°F
$0 Объем
18%
84-85°F
$0 Объем
17%
86-87°F
$0 Объем
17%
88-89°F
$0 Объем
17%
90°F or higher
$0 Объем
41%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in National Weather Service and ensemble model forecasts for Houston's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities evenly split across outcomes from 71°F or below to 90°F+, driven by divergent GFS and ECMWF runs showing potential highs clustered near the climatological average of 78°F but varying by 10–15°F due to unresolved upper-level ridge persistence versus possible weak cold front timing. Recent model updates highlight sensitivity to southerly winds enhancing warm advection or cloud cover suppressing peaks, amid a warm March pattern fading into spring norms. Watch for NWS Houston advisories and 00Z/12Z model refreshes through April 2, which could sharpen resolution criteria around official observations at Bush Intercontinental Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Объем
$101Дата окончания
Apr 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in National Weather Service and ensemble model forecasts for Houston's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities evenly split across outcomes from 71°F or below to 90°F+, driven by divergent GFS and ECMWF runs showing potential highs clustered near the climatological average of 78°F but varying by 10–15°F due to unresolved upper-level ridge persistence versus possible weak cold front timing. Recent model updates highlight sensitivity to southerly winds enhancing warm advection or cloud cover suppressing peaks, amid a warm March pattern fading into spring norms. Watch for NWS Houston advisories and 00Z/12Z model refreshes through April 2, which could sharpen resolution criteria around official observations at Bush Intercontinental Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$101Дата окончания
Apr 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in National Weather Service and ensemble model forecasts for Houston's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities evenly split across outcomes from 71°F or below to 90°F+, driven by divergent GFS and ECMWF runs showing potential highs clustered near the climatological average of 78°F but varying by 10–15°F due to unresolved upper-level ridge persistence versus possible weak cold front timing. Recent model updates highlight sensitivity to southerly winds enhancing warm advection or cloud cover suppressing peaks, amid a warm March pattern fading into spring norms. Watch for NWS Houston advisories and 00Z/12Z model refreshes through April 2, which could sharpen resolution criteria around official observations at Bush Intercontinental Airport.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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