Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, which project Houston's highest temperature on April 1 at 84-85°F (36% implied probability), driven by a persistent upper-level ridge fostering southerly winds and above-normal highs amid a regional heat dome pattern. Recent developments include record 86°F at Houston Hobby Airport this week, signaling sustained warm advection, though slight model divergences—GFS leaning warmer at 86-87°F, ECMWF cooler at 82-83°F—account for tight clustering around mid-80s outcomes, exceeding the April 1 climatological average of 77°F. Uncertainty stems from potential cirrus clouds or weak disturbances; watch daily NWS updates and 18Z model runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Houston on April 1?
Highest temperature in Houston on April 1?
84-85°F 37%
82-83°F 28%
86-87°F 20%
80-81°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
77°F or below
11%
78-79°F
17%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
28%
84-85°F
37%
86-87°F
20%
88-89°F
10%
90-91°F
9%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
8%
96°F or higher
1%
84-85°F 37%
82-83°F 28%
86-87°F 20%
80-81°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
77°F or below
$2 Объем
11%
78-79°F
$10 Объем
17%
80-81°F
$11 Объем
19%
82-83°F
$0 Объем
28%
84-85°F
$73 Объем
37%
86-87°F
$0 Объем
20%
88-89°F
$17 Объем
10%
90-91°F
$10 Объем
9%
92-93°F
$216 Объем
1%
94-95°F
$337 Объем
8%
96°F or higher
$304 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, which project Houston's highest temperature on April 1 at 84-85°F (36% implied probability), driven by a persistent upper-level ridge fostering southerly winds and above-normal highs amid a regional heat dome pattern. Recent developments include record 86°F at Houston Hobby Airport this week, signaling sustained warm advection, though slight model divergences—GFS leaning warmer at 86-87°F, ECMWF cooler at 82-83°F—account for tight clustering around mid-80s outcomes, exceeding the April 1 climatological average of 77°F. Uncertainty stems from potential cirrus clouds or weak disturbances; watch daily NWS updates and 18Z model runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 2:47 PM ET
Объем
$980Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:47 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, which project Houston's highest temperature on April 1 at 84-85°F (36% implied probability), driven by a persistent upper-level ridge fostering southerly winds and above-normal highs amid a regional heat dome pattern. Recent developments include record 86°F at Houston Hobby Airport this week, signaling sustained warm advection, though slight model divergences—GFS leaning warmer at 86-87°F, ECMWF cooler at 82-83°F—account for tight clustering around mid-80s outcomes, exceeding the April 1 climatological average of 77°F. Uncertainty stems from potential cirrus clouds or weak disturbances; watch daily NWS updates and 18Z model runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$980Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:47 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, which project Houston's highest temperature on April 1 at 84-85°F (36% implied probability), driven by a persistent upper-level ridge fostering southerly winds and above-normal highs amid a regional heat dome pattern. Recent developments include record 86°F at Houston Hobby Airport this week, signaling sustained warm advection, though slight model divergences—GFS leaning warmer at 86-87°F, ECMWF cooler at 82-83°F—account for tight clustering around mid-80s outcomes, exceeding the April 1 climatological average of 77°F. Uncertainty stems from potential cirrus clouds or weak disturbances; watch daily NWS updates and 18Z model runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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