Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in São Paulo's March 29 high temperature forecast, with implied probabilities peaking at 24.5% for 31°C, 23.5% for 30°C, and 21% for 29°C, driven by divergent ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF showing peaks from 28–32°C amid a strengthening subtropical ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies. Recent INMET updates highlight reduced cloud cover and light winds favoring upper-30s potential, but afternoon sea breezes and urban heat island moderation could differentiate outcomes by 1–2°C, consistent with March climatology averaging 28°C highs. Key variables include soil moisture deficits from prior dry spells; traders eye 00Z model refreshes for consensus shifts before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 29?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 29?
31°C 25%
30°C 24%
29°C 23%
32°C 14%
24°C or below
1%
25°C
7%
26°C
3%
27°C
6%
28°C
12%
29°C
23%
30°C
24%
31°C
25%
32°C
16%
33°C
9%
34°C or higher
1%
31°C 25%
30°C 24%
29°C 23%
32°C 14%
24°C or below
1%
25°C
7%
26°C
3%
27°C
6%
28°C
12%
29°C
23%
30°C
24%
31°C
25%
32°C
16%
33°C
9%
34°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 25, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in São Paulo's March 29 high temperature forecast, with implied probabilities peaking at 24.5% for 31°C, 23.5% for 30°C, and 21% for 29°C, driven by divergent ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF showing peaks from 28–32°C amid a strengthening subtropical ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies. Recent INMET updates highlight reduced cloud cover and light winds favoring upper-30s potential, but afternoon sea breezes and urban heat island moderation could differentiate outcomes by 1–2°C, consistent with March climatology averaging 28°C highs. Key variables include soil moisture deficits from prior dry spells; traders eye 00Z model refreshes for consensus shifts before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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