Trader consensus tilts slightly toward 32°C or higher as Sao Paulo's peak temperature on March 26, with 38.5% implied probability edging out 23°C at 35%, driven by divergent short-range forecasts amid autumn's volatile subtropical weather. Brazil's INMET and CPTEC models, alongside ECMWF and GFS ensembles, split on upper-level patterns: persistent ridging could sustain recent anomalous warmth above 30°C, while a fast-moving cold front risks capping highs near 23°C via low clouds, southerly winds, and scattered showers. Historical March averages hover at 27–28°C, but current heat bias versus frontal uncertainty keeps odds tight, with 12z updates critical for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Сан-Паулу 26 марта?
Самая высокая температура в Сан-Паулу 26 марта?
29°C 24%
28°C 22%
30°C 20%
27°C 17%
22°C или ниже
2%
23°C
17%
24°C
14%
25°C
17%
26°C
17%
27°C
17%
28°C
22%
29°C
24%
30°C
20%
31°C
17%
32°C или выше
17%
29°C 24%
28°C 22%
30°C 20%
27°C 17%
22°C или ниже
2%
23°C
17%
24°C
14%
25°C
17%
26°C
17%
27°C
17%
28°C
22%
29°C
24%
30°C
20%
31°C
17%
32°C или выше
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 22, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus tilts slightly toward 32°C or higher as Sao Paulo's peak temperature on March 26, with 38.5% implied probability edging out 23°C at 35%, driven by divergent short-range forecasts amid autumn's volatile subtropical weather. Brazil's INMET and CPTEC models, alongside ECMWF and GFS ensembles, split on upper-level patterns: persistent ridging could sustain recent anomalous warmth above 30°C, while a fast-moving cold front risks capping highs near 23°C via low clouds, southerly winds, and scattered showers. Historical March averages hover at 27–28°C, but current heat bias versus frontal uncertainty keeps odds tight, with 12z updates critical for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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