Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for Houston's March 29 high temperature, with models like the GFS and ECMWF diverging slightly on peak warmth amid a ridge of high pressure over Texas building southerly winds from the warm Gulf of Mexico. Recent 00Z model runs project afternoon highs clustering between 78°F and 83°F, driven by sea surface temperatures near 72°F boosting low-level moisture and instability, though lingering clouds from overnight showers and potential timing of a weak cold front could cap peaks lower. Historical late-March averages hover around 75°F, making this mild outlook plausible but sensitive to diurnal heating; watch 12Z updates from NOAA for refined guidance as resolution nears.