MetService's latest extended forecast as of March 29 indicates a maximum temperature around 18°C for Wellington on April 3 under mainly fine skies with northwesterlies strengthening in the evening, driving trader sentiment toward closely matched outcomes like 22°C or higher (40.5% implied probability) versus 16°C (36%). This spread reflects uncertainty in model ensembles, where persistent high pressure could amplify downslope warming from northwesterlies—potentially pushing highs above the early April climatological average of 16–17°C—while cloud or evening showers might cap them lower. NIWA's seasonal outlook favors above-average temperatures (40–50% chance) for the Wellington region amid weakening La Niña transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions, reducing cool southerly influences. Daily updates from MetService and new model runs will refine landfall probabilities before resolution based on official airport observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on April 3?
Highest temperature in Wellington on April 3?
22°C or higher 40%
16°C 36%
19°C 31%
18°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
12°C or below
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
9%
16°C
36%
17°C
26%
18°C
31%
19°C
31%
20°C
27%
21°C
26%
22°C or higher
40%
22°C or higher 40%
16°C 36%
19°C 31%
18°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
12°C or below
$247 Объем
1%
13°C
$281 Объем
1%
14°C
$266 Объем
1%
15°C
$0 Объем
9%
16°C
$12 Объем
36%
17°C
$0 Объем
26%
18°C
$0 Объем
31%
19°C
$0 Объем
31%
20°C
$8 Объем
27%
21°C
$0 Объем
26%
22°C or higher
$0 Объем
40%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.MetService's latest extended forecast as of March 29 indicates a maximum temperature around 18°C for Wellington on April 3 under mainly fine skies with northwesterlies strengthening in the evening, driving trader sentiment toward closely matched outcomes like 22°C or higher (40.5% implied probability) versus 16°C (36%). This spread reflects uncertainty in model ensembles, where persistent high pressure could amplify downslope warming from northwesterlies—potentially pushing highs above the early April climatological average of 16–17°C—while cloud or evening showers might cap them lower. NIWA's seasonal outlook favors above-average temperatures (40–50% chance) for the Wellington region amid weakening La Niña transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions, reducing cool southerly influences. Daily updates from MetService and new model runs will refine landfall probabilities before resolution based on official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 4:25 PM ET
Объем
$815Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 4:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.MetService's latest extended forecast as of March 29 indicates a maximum temperature around 18°C for Wellington on April 3 under mainly fine skies with northwesterlies strengthening in the evening, driving trader sentiment toward closely matched outcomes like 22°C or higher (40.5% implied probability) versus 16°C (36%). This spread reflects uncertainty in model ensembles, where persistent high pressure could amplify downslope warming from northwesterlies—potentially pushing highs above the early April climatological average of 16–17°C—while cloud or evening showers might cap them lower. NIWA's seasonal outlook favors above-average temperatures (40–50% chance) for the Wellington region amid weakening La Niña transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions, reducing cool southerly influences. Daily updates from MetService and new model runs will refine landfall probabilities before resolution based on official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$815Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 4:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...MetService's latest extended forecast as of March 29 indicates a maximum temperature around 18°C for Wellington on April 3 under mainly fine skies with northwesterlies strengthening in the evening, driving trader sentiment toward closely matched outcomes like 22°C or higher (40.5% implied probability) versus 16°C (36%). This spread reflects uncertainty in model ensembles, where persistent high pressure could amplify downslope warming from northwesterlies—potentially pushing highs above the early April climatological average of 16–17°C—while cloud or evening showers might cap them lower. NIWA's seasonal outlook favors above-average temperatures (40–50% chance) for the Wellington region amid weakening La Niña transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions, reducing cool southerly influences. Daily updates from MetService and new model runs will refine landfall probabilities before resolution based on official airport observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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