Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Wellington's highest temperature on April 2, with 18°C (26.5% implied probability) edging out 19°C and 21°C or higher due to ensemble model spreads from GFS and ECMWF showing daytime highs clustered around 17–20°C amid autumnal cooling trends. MetService and NIWA guidance points to near-normal April conditions—historical averages of 16–17°C—with variability driven by upper-level steering patterns, potential ridging for clearer skies and higher insolation versus approaching fronts introducing cloud cover and southerly winds that cap peaks. Recent model runs indicate slight warming potential from residual northerlies, but daily updates expected through March 31–April 1 could refine land-based observations versus airport measurements resolving the market.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on April 2?
Highest temperature in Wellington on April 2?
16°C 31%
18°C 27%
19°C 24%
21°C or higher 23%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
11°C or below
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
15%
15°C
16%
16°C
16%
17°C
17%
18°C
27%
19°C
24%
20°C
18%
21°C or higher
23%
16°C 31%
18°C 27%
19°C 24%
21°C or higher 23%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
11°C or below
$248 Объем
1%
12°C
$176 Объем
1%
13°C
$230 Объем
1%
14°C
$5 Объем
15%
15°C
$1 Объем
16%
16°C
$4 Объем
16%
17°C
$0 Объем
17%
18°C
$0 Объем
27%
19°C
$0 Объем
24%
20°C
$0 Объем
18%
21°C or higher
$1 Объем
23%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Wellington's highest temperature on April 2, with 18°C (26.5% implied probability) edging out 19°C and 21°C or higher due to ensemble model spreads from GFS and ECMWF showing daytime highs clustered around 17–20°C amid autumnal cooling trends. MetService and NIWA guidance points to near-normal April conditions—historical averages of 16–17°C—with variability driven by upper-level steering patterns, potential ridging for clearer skies and higher insolation versus approaching fronts introducing cloud cover and southerly winds that cap peaks. Recent model runs indicate slight warming potential from residual northerlies, but daily updates expected through March 31–April 1 could refine land-based observations versus airport measurements resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Объем
$666Дата окончания
Apr 2, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Wellington's highest temperature on April 2, with 18°C (26.5% implied probability) edging out 19°C and 21°C or higher due to ensemble model spreads from GFS and ECMWF showing daytime highs clustered around 17–20°C amid autumnal cooling trends. MetService and NIWA guidance points to near-normal April conditions—historical averages of 16–17°C—with variability driven by upper-level steering patterns, potential ridging for clearer skies and higher insolation versus approaching fronts introducing cloud cover and southerly winds that cap peaks. Recent model runs indicate slight warming potential from residual northerlies, but daily updates expected through March 31–April 1 could refine land-based observations versus airport measurements resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$666Дата окончания
Apr 2, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Wellington's highest temperature on April 2, with 18°C (26.5% implied probability) edging out 19°C and 21°C or higher due to ensemble model spreads from GFS and ECMWF showing daytime highs clustered around 17–20°C amid autumnal cooling trends. MetService and NIWA guidance points to near-normal April conditions—historical averages of 16–17°C—with variability driven by upper-level steering patterns, potential ridging for clearer skies and higher insolation versus approaching fronts introducing cloud cover and southerly winds that cap peaks. Recent model runs indicate slight warming potential from residual northerlies, but daily updates expected through March 31–April 1 could refine land-based observations versus airport measurements resolving the market.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы