Trader consensus on Polymarket closely mirrors the spread in global weather model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF for Houston's April 2 high temperature, with implied probabilities peaking at 23.5% for 80-81°F and 21.5% for 82-83°F amid a 5-7°F uncertainty range centered near 80°F. Recent National Weather Service updates reflect a warming trend from persistent upper-level ridging over Texas, following last week's cold front exit, with current highs in the low 80s under south-southeasterly flow boosting temperatures above the early April climatological normal of 77-78°F at Houston's Intercontinental Airport. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on mid-week shortwave trough timing, potential cloud cover, and sea breeze influences, which could shave 2-4°F off peaks or allow further intensification; watch NWS 00Z/12Z guidance and ensemble refreshes through April 1 for sharper resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Houston on April 2?
Highest temperature in Houston on April 2?
80-81°F 28%
82-83°F 22%
78-79°F 18%
74-75°F 17%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
69°F or below
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
12%
74-75°F
17%
76-77°F
17%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
28%
82-83°F
22%
84-85°F
14%
86-87°F
11%
88°F or higher
11%
80-81°F 28%
82-83°F 22%
78-79°F 18%
74-75°F 17%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
69°F or below
$266 Объем
1%
70-71°F
$262 Объем
1%
72-73°F
$5 Объем
12%
74-75°F
$1 Объем
17%
76-77°F
$0 Объем
17%
78-79°F
$0 Объем
18%
80-81°F
$0 Объем
28%
82-83°F
$0 Объем
22%
84-85°F
$0 Объем
14%
86-87°F
$1 Объем
11%
88°F or higher
$5 Объем
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely mirrors the spread in global weather model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF for Houston's April 2 high temperature, with implied probabilities peaking at 23.5% for 80-81°F and 21.5% for 82-83°F amid a 5-7°F uncertainty range centered near 80°F. Recent National Weather Service updates reflect a warming trend from persistent upper-level ridging over Texas, following last week's cold front exit, with current highs in the low 80s under south-southeasterly flow boosting temperatures above the early April climatological normal of 77-78°F at Houston's Intercontinental Airport. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on mid-week shortwave trough timing, potential cloud cover, and sea breeze influences, which could shave 2-4°F off peaks or allow further intensification; watch NWS 00Z/12Z guidance and ensemble refreshes through April 1 for sharper resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ET
Объем
$541Дата окончания
Apr 2, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely mirrors the spread in global weather model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF for Houston's April 2 high temperature, with implied probabilities peaking at 23.5% for 80-81°F and 21.5% for 82-83°F amid a 5-7°F uncertainty range centered near 80°F. Recent National Weather Service updates reflect a warming trend from persistent upper-level ridging over Texas, following last week's cold front exit, with current highs in the low 80s under south-southeasterly flow boosting temperatures above the early April climatological normal of 77-78°F at Houston's Intercontinental Airport. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on mid-week shortwave trough timing, potential cloud cover, and sea breeze influences, which could shave 2-4°F off peaks or allow further intensification; watch NWS 00Z/12Z guidance and ensemble refreshes through April 1 for sharper resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$541Дата окончания
Apr 2, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely mirrors the spread in global weather model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF for Houston's April 2 high temperature, with implied probabilities peaking at 23.5% for 80-81°F and 21.5% for 82-83°F amid a 5-7°F uncertainty range centered near 80°F. Recent National Weather Service updates reflect a warming trend from persistent upper-level ridging over Texas, following last week's cold front exit, with current highs in the low 80s under south-southeasterly flow boosting temperatures above the early April climatological normal of 77-78°F at Houston's Intercontinental Airport. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on mid-week shortwave trough timing, potential cloud cover, and sea breeze influences, which could shave 2-4°F off peaks or allow further intensification; watch NWS 00Z/12Z guidance and ensemble refreshes through April 1 for sharper resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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