Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward a Madrid high of 14°C (24%) or 15°C (22%), reflecting the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and Spain's AEMET, which project maximum temperatures in the mid-teens Celsius amid a weakening high-pressure ridge over Iberia. Updated model runs over the past 24 hours show a slight downward shift due to increased cloud cover and northerly winds advecting cooler continental air, narrowing the range from prior 16–18°C guidance. Differentiating factors include afternoon insolation potential versus timing of stratocumulus decks, with historical March norms around 16°C adding context to the tight clustering. New 12Z forecast cycles from NOAA and ECMWF, due shortly, could refine this uncertainty as the date nears resolution via official AEMET airport observations.