Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Madrid's highest temperature on March 28 clustering around 17–19°C, with 18°C leading at 30%, reflecting the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicating mild highs in that narrow band amid a high-pressure ridge over Iberia. AEMET's official outlook aligns closely, projecting 17–19°C peaks under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds enhancing daytime warming, though urban heat island effects in central Madrid could nudge readings upward. Differentiating factors include model spread from cloud cover variability—ECMWF leans slightly cooler at 17°C in drier runs, while GFS outliers hit 20°C with stronger solar insolation—and historical March norms of 15–16°C, tempered by this year's warmer spring anomaly. Key watch: afternoon updates from Spanish meteorological agencies.